Optimism undermines success when it’s based on magical thinking. We engage in magical thinking when we believe happy endings are the result of a will-to-success. Voila! It will happen because I Can Do It.

The wrong kind of optimism doesn’t prepare us for all those bumps in the road. It’s based on faith in reaching the destination through sheer force of feeling. Yes I Can!  It pushes out thoughts of what might go wrong along the way: a sure set-up for failure. And when failure happens, there’s no plan in place, or even a mindset in place, to deal with it and get back on track. 

The wrong kind of optimism puts too much stock in uncontrollable factors: I know I have what it takes. Things will work out. When things don’t work out, well it’s just unfair!  Such reactions rarely lead to fixing the problem.

This faith-based optimism is associated with poor outcomes. For instance, studies have found that over-optimistic college students often struggle in school because they don’t anticipate obstacles and respond poorly to setbacks. Part of the problem is their tendency to attribute both success and failure to uncontrollable factors like innate ability or bad luck, rather than controllable factors like study habits and strategies. So setbacks and failures aren’t learning experiences – how can I do better next time? – but occasions for complaint and misery. Hardly a recipe for success.

Much better to cultivate a reality-based optimism that focuses as much on the means as the ends. Or, as Heidi Grant Halvorson put it:

“Don't visualize success—visualize the steps you will take in order to make success happen.”

References:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-science-success/201106/the-3-biggest-myths-about-motivation-won-t-go-away  - 6/17/11 quote of Heidi Grant Halvorson, Associate Director of Columbia's Motivation Science Center.

Haynes, T., Perry, R.  Stupnisky, R.  and Daniels, L (2009 ) Review of Attributional Retraining Treatments: Fostering Engagement and Persistence in Vulnerable College Students in J.C. Smart (ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research,  Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 227-271.

Oettingen, G., Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation, 2014; New York, Penguin Group