The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says yields for major crops may be reduced by up to 2% a decade due to climate change. Developed countries will probably weather the storm (!) through continued improvements in agricultural productivity. For instance, US farmers have more than doubled yields over the past 65 years while agricultural inputs* have remained fairly constant. Between increasing adoption of sustainable practices (e.g., cover crops, conservation tillage), precision farming and ever more resilient crops, agricultural productivity in the US and other developed counties is likely to maintain its upward trajectory.

Productivity in less developed countries is also growing – but not quite enough to meet projected demand over the next few decades. However, that’s why we have trade!  There’s no imperative for every country to be self-sufficient in agriculture. Given decreasing population in developed countries – and their higher rates of agricultural productivity growth – these countries will be able to produce more than their populations need. Let the surplus be traded. (If only it were so simple, but it’s a start: more later!)

In the meantime, a couple graphs** to mull over:

*Inputs include land, labor, seeds, fertilizers, agrochemicals, farm equipment, irrigation equipment, and livestock. 

**TFP is Total Factor Productivity, which is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs.   Increasing agricultural TFP means fewer inputs are required to achieve the same output.

References

Sun Ling Wang, Paul Heisey, David Schimmelpfennig, and Eldon Ball. Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers, ERR-189, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, July 2015.