Close to 8.8 million disabled US workers receive Social Security Disability Income (SSDI). Another 4.8 disabled adults of working age (18-64) get Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Currently, SSDI payments average $1,038 per month while SSI payments average $543/month. Most SSDI and SSI beneficiaries are also eligible for Medicare or Medicaid.
SSI recipients don’t qualify for the higher SSDI benefit because they fail to meet the SSDI-threshold for years previously employed. Otherwise, the qualifications for both benefit programs are pretty much the same, mainly being unable to perform “substantial gainful activity” - basically any job anywhere in the nation that generates at least $1170 a month ($1950 if blind). It doesn’t matter whether a specific job vacancy exists.
As a share of workers with taxable earnings, SSDI beneficiaries have more than tripled since 1970. This is partly due to demographic changes, such as an aging population and the greater number of women in the job market. However, the main drivers of SSDI expansion have been a relaxation of requirements and the higher economic value of benefits. Put simply, nowadays it's easier to qualify for SSDI (and, by extension, SSI) and the benefits are worth more than they used to be, especially to individuals with marginal job skills. That's partly because wages at the low-end of the job market have stagnated and partly because the cost of healthcare has skyrocketed.
Now I don't want to imply that most SSDI and SSI beneficiaries are scamming the system and can really work. In my experience as a former "vocational expert" evaluating ability to work for benefit determinations, I encountered plenty of disabled individuals who were clearly unable to engage in "substantial gainful activity". But I also encountered quite a few benefit applicants who were, well, rather suspect.
What does this have to do with a Universal Basic Income (UBI)? It's part of my project to estimate (roughly!) how many Americans would drop out of the labor market, reduce their hours, or otherwise downshift their career aspirations if they could count on an UBI. Once I get a handle on that number, I will address the possible effects on economic growth, tax revenues, and the social fabric.
I am assuming that under a UBI scheme, most SSDI/SSI applicants and beneficiaries who are actually able to work would either choose not to work or work reduced hours if they received a UBI. After all, these individuals have already signaled their desire not to work by applying for disability benefits. In the case of SSDI, these benefits are similar in value to what is typically being proposed for a UBI, give or take a couple hundred a month. As for SSI, the benefits are way less than what I've seen in most UBI proposals.
So the next challenge is to estimate (roughly!) how many SSDI/SSI applicants and beneficiaries are probably able to work.
Reference:
Mark Duggan, Scott A. Imberman “Why Are the Disability Rolls Skyrocketing? The Contribution of Population Characteristics, Economic Conditions, and Program Generosity” in Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly (2008), David M. Cutler and David A. Wise, eds. National Bureau of Economic Research (p. 337 - 379). http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11119