A few weeks ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report about the potential impact of climate change this century and what we can do about it. The IPCC report was met with considerable hysteria (typical headline: Monday US briefing: 12 years to prevent environmental catastrophe, IPCC warns). However, I found it rather inspiring, because it detailed hundreds of ways to limit and adapt to climate change.
Specifically, the IPCC report identifies several potential pathways to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, stressing that none are “definitive”, because each pathway relies on a range of assumptions about economic growth, technology developments and societal lifestyle choices. However, there are common elements to all the 1.5°C-consistent pathways the IPCC people analyzed, such as important roles for CO2 removal, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and electrification.
Given deep uncertainty about the trajectory of human development over the next 80 years, scientists imagine a range of socioeconomic scenarios, from best-case to awful, and consider ways to steer human development trends towards scenarios that present less challenge to climate change mitigation and adaptation in the context of sustainable development and eradication of poverty. Per O'Neill, B.C. et al. (2017), here’s a pretty good scenario:
Low population
High economic growth per capita
High human development (e.g., health, education)
High technological progress
Environmentally-oriented technological and behavioral change
Resource efficient lifestyles
Low energy and food demand per capita
Global cooperation and convergence in per capita income and energy use
So there are three challenges: 1) increase the likelihood of socioeconomic developments that present lower challenge to climate change mitigation and adaptation; 2) limit the rise in global temperatures; and 3) improve our ability to adapt to climate change. Per the IPCC report, here are some ways to address all three challenges:
Land use: agricultural intensification, conservation agriculture (e.g., low-till), efficient irrigation, biodiversity management, coastal defense and hardening, ecosystem restoration, avoided deforestation, reforestation and afforestation (new forests).
Car Transport - electrification of vehicles, car sharing, automation
Freight Transport - systemic improvements in supply chains, logistics, and routing, electrification of vehicles
Buildings - energy efficiency improvements, smart lighting and air conditioning
Electricity – renewables, smart grids and grid flexibility to accommodate intermittent renewables
Industry - energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon and bio-based substitutions in production materials and processes
Agriculture (Crop) - Precision agriculture to increase energy and resource efficiency including reduction of fertilizer use. Genome editing to increase resilience of crops to a changing climate.
Agriculture (Livestock) – intensification of livestock systems to facilitate reforestation and expansion of wild habitat; use of methane inhibitors (vaccines and changes in diet) to reduce cattle emissions
Disaster reduction and adaptation – improved prevention, assessment and response
A simplification, yes. For more, read the IPCC report (link below). Warning: it’s hundreds of pages long.
References:
O'Neill, B.C. et al., 2017: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 169-180, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004