First step: what are the numbers? Of course, numbers can lie if they leave out important context (often other numbers). Then again, too much context (and too many numbers) can create a “forest through the trees” problem, accompanied by a plea for simplicity: cut to the chase!
With the above in mind, I present:
One take-away from the above chart is that “apprehensions of inadmissibles” have been increasing along the Southwest US border since July 2018. However, although the total number of apprehensions in 2018 (521,090) was greater than in 2017 (415,517), it was less than in 2016 (553,378). So there’s no detectable pattern in these numbers.
But what we’ve been hearing about lately is a surge of asylum seekers. Actually, this “surge” has been going on for some time. Per figures provided by the Department of Homeland Security, the trend is clear:
Point of clarification: Affirmative asylum-seekers are yet to begin the deportation process in the courts. These individuals would present their case in a non-courtroom setting, such as in an immigration office or before the United States Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS), which is part of the Department of Homeland Security. Defensive asylum-seekers defend themselves in immigration court within the Department of Justice system, e.g. to appeal an initial denial by an immigration officer or if they had been caught crossing the border illegally.
The net effect of all these asylum applications is system overwhelm. Over a year ago, the USCIS had already declared a huge backlog of asylum cases. To quote a January 31, 2018 USCIS news release:
“The agency currently faces a crisis-level backlog of 311,000 pending asylum cases as of Jan. 21, 2018, making the asylum system increasingly vulnerable to fraud and abuse. This backlog has grown by more than 1750 percent over the last five years, and the rate of new asylum applications has more than tripled.”
Bottom line: there aren’t enough immigration officers (DHS) or judges (DOJ) to process asylum applications. As a result, asylum applicants wait years just to get an initial decision on their case and then more years if they appeal the decision. They are typically allowed to reside in the US while they wait for their day in court.
Another issue is how many unauthorized immigrants show up for their court hearings. Yep - I’ve got a chart for that. To help with interpretation: when an unauthorized immigrant fails to appear for a hearing, the immigration judge (IJ) may conduct a hearing in the person’s absence (in absentia). The in absentia rate refers to the proportion of all initial case decisions where the judge issues a removal order for someone who didn’t show for the hearing. Also, UAC means Unaccompanied Alien Children.
Ok, without further ado:
In the scheme of things, asylum seekers do a pretty good job of showing up at their court hearings, although it appears that most asylum requests are denied. For instance, just 10,523 defensive asylum requests were granted in 2017 - not much considering the overall caseload.
Not counting asylum seekers, it looks like over 40% of unauthorized immigrants didn’t show for their initial hearings in 2017. That’s a lot. How many ended up staying in the US? Hard to say, but the Department of Home Security has estimated that in 2015 there were about 12 million unauthorized immigrants in the US. I imagine the numbers are higher now.
References:
Department of Homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics “Annual Flow Report/Refugees and Asylees: 2017” March 2019 Release https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/refugees-asylees
Department of Homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics Population “Estimates Illegal Alien Population Residing in the United States: January 2015” Released December 2018 https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/population-estimates/unauthorized-resident
Department of Justice Executive Office for Immigration Review Statistics yearbook FY (Fiscal year) 2017