This post was inspired by a current events group I attend weekly. The group is composed of what’s often called in political science papers as “high-information voters”. During one gathering, a question was put to the floor: “what shortcuts do you use to decide which candidates or propositions to vote for?” The overwhelming response: endorsements in the voter’s pamphlet. And that got me to thinking….
We read about the power of Big Money all the time, especially how corporations have corrupted the political process by buying access to policy makers. Big Money occasionally influences election outcomes as well, more by increasing turnout in close elections than by changing voters’ minds. But in determining who gets elected and what propositions get passed, endorsements matter more than Big Money. Specifically, key endorsements that voters rely on to guide their voting decisions. The basic thought process is : “If so-and-so supports this candidate or proposition, they must be okay” - or not okay, depending on one’s political inclinations. This is only natural: we all use mental shortcuts (aka heuristics) to figure out who and what to believe, especially when faced with a barrage of contradictory information.
Which brings me to a fascinating 2017 paper titled “Political Influence in California”. The authors created a dataset of candidate endorsement rankings based on information collected by the League of Women Voters of California Education Fund. This nonpartisan organization had sent out questionnaires to candidates for all elected offices in California, from school board member to U.S. senator. The questionnaire asked each candidate to list their top three “key endorsements”. The authors were able to obtain endorsement rankings from 19,945 office seeker campaigns during the 2012 and 2014 election cycle, from which they developed a continuous measure of endorsement power. The authors assumed candidates deliberately choose to list their key endorsers based on desirability and that the ordering of endorsements implied a preference ordering.
The Key Endorsement “Power Rankings” are at the end of this post. But they’re a lot to take in (just like election pamphlets), so I’ve created a chart to help see endorsement patterns by party:
Judging from the above chart alone, Democrat candidates appear more beholden to special interest groups than Republican candidates (whose most coveted endorsements were simply from Republican groups). It also looks like Democrats are particularly attuned to the political agendas of groups and Republicans to an approach to governing. At least in California. Now for the Power Rankings.
Democrat Power Ratings by Group
County Firefighters’ Association
County Democratic Party
California Democratic Council
Americans for Democratic Action
California State Firefighters’ Association
California Teachers Association
California Small Business Association
California Labor Federation
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project
California Association of Highway Patrolmen
County Farm Bureau
California Faculty Association
CDF Firefighters
National Education Association
American Federation of Teachers
United Farmers Workers
California Federation of Teachers
County Federation of Labor
California School Employees Association
Progressive Democrats of America
Chamber of Commerce
United Auto Workers
SEIU Local
California Nurses Association
National Organization for Women
County Professional Firefighters’ Association
Crime Victims United
California Teamsters Public Affairs Council
California Police Chiefs Association (State/County)
California League of Conservation Voters
Labor Council (County/Regional)
Peace Officers Research Association of California
County Deputy Sheriffs’ Association
California Professional Firefighters
Police Protective League (Local)
Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Stonewall Democratic Club
County Green Party
Democracy for America
National Women’s Political Caucus
Mexican American Political Association
California Organization of Police and Sheriffs
Equality California
SEIU California
County Democratic Club
California Labor Council
American Nurses Association
Latino Legislative Caucus
County Young Democrats
California National Organization for Women
California State Sheriffs’ Association
Republican Power Ratings by Group
California Peace Officers’ Association
California Teachers Association
Log Cabin Republicans (County/Local)
County Republican Party
Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
California State Firefighters’ Association
Crime Victims United
County Farm Bureau
California Republican Assembly
California Small Business Association
County Deputy Sheriffs’ Association
Wish List
California Association of Highway Patrolmen
Republican National Hispanic Assembly
California Police Chiefs Association (State/County)
California League of Conservation Voters
Chamber of Commerce
California Professional Firefighters
California School Employees Association
Peace Officers Research Association of California
California Congress of Republicans
Family Action PAC
California Republican League
California ProLife Council
Log Cabin Republicans of California
California Young Republicans
Lincoln Club (Local)
National Tax Limitation Committee
California Organization of Police and Sheriffs
Liberty Caucus
County Republican Central Committee
Farm Bureau Federation
National Federation of Independent Businesses
National Women’s Political Caucus
National Rifle Association
California College Republicans
Reference:
Atkinson, M. D, & DeWitt, D. (2017). Political Influence in California. California Journal of Politics and Policy, 9(3). http://dx.doi.org/10.5070/P2cjpp9336925 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sk1f8hj (pdf)