According to “Analysis: Global coal power set for record fall in 2019” (Carbon Brief), global electricity production from coal is set to fall by around 3% in 2019, the largest drop on record. The projected drop is due to record falls in developed countries, including Germany, the EU overall, South Korea and the United States. Reasons for the drop include slowing or negative power demand growth and increased electricity generation from renewables, nuclear and gas. The largest reduction took place in the US, as several large coal-fired power plants closed in the last year. China also saw a flattening of power generation growth and coal power output in India is on track to fall for the first time in at least three decades.
Global coal use actually began its unexpected decline way back in 2014. At the time climate scientists and the International Energy Agency were still predicting demand for coal would continue to rise well past 2030. For example, this from an influential 2011 multi-author paper - over a thousand citations! - regarding the so-called “business-as-usual” emissions scenario:
“Given the overall slow rate of technological improvements in low-carbon technologies, the future energy system moves toward coal-intensive technology choices with high GHG emissions…. Coal use in particular increases almost 10 fold by 2100 and there is a continued reliance on oil in the transportation sector.” Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V. et al. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions.
Whenever you read climate change media stories* about catastrophic sea rise, mass extinctions, endless civil strife, widespread hunger, epidemics, skyrocketing crime, and the like, you’ll probably learn that these predictions are based on a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario - with no explanation as to what a business-as-usual scenario is. These articles often give the impression that the awful things will happen unless we change continue our current ways, i.e., business-as-usual (BAU).
But in the climate change literature, BAU refers to conditions that would lead to a worst-case global warming scenario called RCP8.5**. Technically, there could be many ways to get from here to the worst-case, but almost all hypothesized RCP8.5 storylines assume lots of coal and no serious emissions reduction (i.e., no mitigation). These assumptions have been obsolete for years.
If not a worst-case RCP8.5 future, then what? As the chart below makes clear, the planet will still be getting warmer but how much warmer is anybody’s guess.
Note: The global temperature range associated with RCP8.5 is represented by the red lines.
Of course, uncertainty is no excuse for inaction.
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* For example, “Business as usual” could lead to catastrophic global sea-level rise, says new study or 'Because Business as Usual Is a Death Sentence': Youth Climate Strikers in Their Own Words .
** RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway. For a great discussion of RCP8.5, see Explainer: The high-emissions ‘RCP8.5’ global warming scenario Zeke Hausfather/Carbon Brief August 21, 2019. According to the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Scenarios without additional efforts to constrain emissions (‘baseline scenarios’) lead to pathways ranging between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.”