Are some government responses to the coronavirus more successful than others? By “successful”, I mean preventing virus-related deaths. Deaths as a percentage of a country’s population is a decent proxy for how many residents are infected, as well as the rate of serious infection - at least for developed countries with similar age demographics and where medical care is roughly similar. (Confirmed coronavirus cases is a poor indicator of virus prevalence, because so few people have been tested.)

So let’s look at the death rates as of April 10:

Cross-Country Comparisons-Rates per Million.png

Now consider these countries’ death rates over time and government responses so far:

Cross-Country Comparisons-Rates and Responses.png

Per the above table, no single government action stands out as especially effective across countries with lower death rates. South Korea did mass testing. Singapore implemented travel bans and quarantined specific groups. Taiwan ramped up production and distribution of masks. Japan focused on identifying infected residents and isolating virus clusters.

All the countries implemented travel bans. The timing and thoroughness of these bans may have been crucial. But it’s too early to draw firm conclusions. This is a story-in-progress. I’ll check the data in another month and see if any patterns emerge.