Short version: Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US.

Longer version: The average annual death rate for 25-64 years olds in the US is 403 per 100,000 (2017 data, CDC).  Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 127, 869,000 US workers age 25-64 in 2019. The death rate for this age group increases by 63% with every 1% increase in unemployment.  So if the unemployment rate went up 1%, the death rate for 25-64 year olds would be 657 per 100,000 (403 + 254 “excess” deaths for every 100,000 individuals). A 1% increase in unemployment for the 25-64 age group means around 1,278,690 would lose their jobs, which translates to 3250 additional deaths. A 10% increase in unemployment would translate to 32,500 extra deaths per year.

The Connection between Unemployment and Increased Mortality:

The following is from an analysis of 42 studies with data on more than 20 million persons:

  • Multiple studies have found that alcohol consumption and binge drinking rise following unemployment…This is especially true among men, less educated people, young persons and those involuntarily unemployed .

  • Unemployed persons, especially young men, are also more likely to increase their level of smoking, are less likely to try to stop smoking and are more likely to relapse from smoking cessation efforts.

  • Unemployed persons are more likely to increase their use of illicit drugs.

  • Unemployed persons often substitute poorer quality diets for better ones, which may result in obesity, which is associated with a whole bunch of health problems.

Something to think about:

As of April 15, 27,808 individuals had died of Coronavirus-related causes in the US, a death rate of 8.45 per 100,000 US residents. Compare to the “excess” 254 deaths per 100,000 persons with every 1% increase in the unemployment rate. Yes, we need to continue the lockdown for a while, to flatten the curve so the healthcare system doesn’t buckle under the load. But we also need to get back to work and revive the economy. Lives depend on it.

References:

“Calculating Deaths per 1% Increase in Unemployment” by Nadine K Zawadzki/ Health Economics/ University of Southern California. https://rpubs.com/nzawadzki/covid19-by-country

Roelfs DJ, Shor E, Davidson KW, Schwartz JE. Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality. Soc Sci Med. 2011;72(6):840–854. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.01.005