The first chart is from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), whose model assumed that by the end of the first week of April, all states will have imposed the full range of social distancing rules statewide and that the states will keep the social distancing rules in place through June 1.

March 2020 Mortality Predictions.png

As of April 13, seven states had not implemented stay-at-home orders. However, the middle-range estimate of the above model is pretty close to what has actually happened so far, with an average mid-April death rate hovering around 2,000 a day. (I’m assuming that huge spike on April 16 was an anomaly, probably due in part to reclassification of prior deaths).

US Deaths per Day April 2-21.png

Here’s hoping the COVID-19 contagion has truly peaked and the death rate will soon begin its quick slide. The signs are promisingly: hospitalization rates are down and the spread of infection is slowing in most states. More on that in the next post.

* Note that the predicted ventilator shortage never happened, because it was based on a worse-case scenario (e.g., high-end estimates in the computer models).

Links:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/asa-hutchison-arkansas-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/824744490/5-key-facts-the-white-house-isnt-saying-about-their-covid-19-projections  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/asa-hutchison-arkansas-coronavirus/index.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/31/824946036/models-of-epidemic-predict-huge-u-s-death-toll-scientists-hope-for-better-outcom