For the purpose of this post, I’m defining “survival” as applying to those individuals with confirmed Covid-19 but who haven’t yet died of Covid-related conditions. Of course, some of these individuals will lose the fight, but most will survive. We get a hint of Covid-19 survival rates by looking at the mortality rate of confirmed cases. The lower the case-related mortality rate, the better the survival rate. With that in mind, take a look:

Cross-Country Comparisons-Rates per100K.png

What’s going on here? The Covid-19 mortality rate in these countries range from .06% of confirmed cases to 14.53% of cases. Some possibilities:

  1. Confirmed cases are based on test results and some countries are mainly testing individuals in vulnerable groups who are also symptomatic. These countries will have higher mortality rates.

  2. The healthcare systems of some countries may have been overwhelmed for a while and they might as lost more Covid patients as a result, e.g., Spain and Italy.

  3. Some counties skew old, obese, and/or sick, so more of those who test positive will be old, obese and sick - hence, more likely to succumb to Covid-19.

  4. Some countries have large numbers of migrants, who tend to be younger and live in close quarters with each other. For example, more than 90 percent of Singapore’s recent cases are low-wage foreign workers living in dormitories. These individuals will be more likely to catch Covid-19 but also more likely to survive the infection.

  5. Some countries are less than truthful about their mortality rates. More charitably, some countries may have misclassified cause of death. Russia: I’m talkin’ to you.

Links:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3081772/coronavirus-why-so-few-deaths-among-singapores-14000

https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2020/05/coronavirus-mortality-rate-countries-200506192622275.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/as-virus-deaths-grow-two-small-nations-keep-fatality-below-0-1