[This is a follow-up to my April 26, 2021 post, Cross-Country Comparisons: Covid-19 Deaths versus Excess Deaths.] 

Per Our World in Data, the term ‘excess mortality’ refers to the number of deaths from all causes above and beyond what would have been expected under ‘normal’ conditions. Since early 2020 excess mortality figures have captured confirmed and undiagnosed Covid-19 deaths as well as deaths due to other causes, some linked to overall crisis conditions such as delayed medical care and social isolation. Most countries have had more deaths than normal during the pandemic. The exception are countries with both low Covid death rates and lower than normal deaths from other causes thanks mostly to social distancing and lockdowns, which reduced the risk of dying from influenza and other contagious diseases.

Countries that have way more excess deaths than Covid-19 deaths are almost assuredly undercounting Covid deaths. For example, the excess death rates in Russia and Serbia are more than three times their official Covid death rates over roughly the same period. Some countries, such as Russia, have been seriously undercounting Covid deaths for a long time and appear uninterested in correcting their records. Others may be motivated to correct their records but the task is just too daunting to undertake, or at least complete. For example, the Economist estimates that by the start of May 2021 perhaps 2.3 million people in India had died from Covid, compared with about 200,000 official deaths. But given that only around a fifth of all deaths are medically certified in India, it’s highly unlikely Indian officials will ever know the true Covid death toll.

Be that as it may, here are some countries with serious Covid death undercounts, plus Peru and the U.S.:

And…

I’ll leave the last word to The Economist, my go-source for excess mortality data:

Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 16.7m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.3m and 19.4m additional deaths. - The Economist, October 19, 2021