“For everyone in the country, charging the average new EV produces far fewer global warming pollutants than driving the average new gasoline car.” - Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave/Union of Concerned Scientists

Well, yes, charging a new electric vehicle (EV) is likely to emit much less than driving a new gasoline car, but do EVs still emit less than gas-only cars over their entire lifecycle, from manufacturing to operation to end-of-life? It appears that in most cases, the answer is yes, although manufacturing emissions are somewhat higher for EVs than conventional gas-only cars. Here’s a nice chart that breaks it down:

Note: 150,000 km = 93,206 miles

Ok, EVs clearly emit less over their lifecycle than conventional gas-only cars, at least in Europe and except for Germany. What’s wrong with Germany, anyway? In a word: coal. Charging an EV requires electricity and coal remains Germany's primary source of electricity to this day. Compare to France, where in 2020 nuclear energy accounted for 71% of total energy production and Norway, where the share of electricity generated from hydro power totaled 93% in 2019.

What about the US and gas-electric (G-E) hybrids? After all, Americans have bought way more G-E hybrids than EVs and hybrids also emit less than conventional gas-only cars. How do their lifecycle emissions compare to those of EVs? It depends on the source of electricity in the state where you live. Consider, for instance, California and West Virginia:

Note: “Hybrid” = Gas-Electric Hybrid. Assumptions include: 11,824 average annual vehicle miles driven, Hybrid Gas-Electric mpg: 44.4 and Plug-In Hybrid: 37.9 mpg/55% annual miles on electricity.

Not much a surprise that G-E hybrids emit less than EVs in West Virginia. After all, that’s coal country. However, coal is on its way out in the US. And thanks to the growth of renewables, most states’ energy mix will soon look better than California’s does today. So, if you plan to buy a new car any time soon and want to decrease your carbon footprint, I say buy electric.

On the other hand, what if the choice were keep your old but reliable G-E hybrid or buy a new EV? Which one would be better for the planet? I’m thinking it’s probably a wash, because it takes a few years for a new EV to make up for its high manufacturing emissions. If it were me (and it is), I’d keep the old hybrid for awhile and then switch to electric when I’m ready for a new car. By that time, emissions from electricity generation should be a lot closer to net-zero.

References 

Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave. Union of Concerned Scientists October 29, 2015 

Effects of battery manufacturing on electric vehicle life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. February 2018. ICCT Briefing. Prepared by Dale Hall and Nic Lutsey/The International Council on Clean Transportation  

Emissions from Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles.  Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) US Department of Energy 

Hybrid-Electric, Plug-in Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicle Sales. Bureau of Transportation Statistics/US Department of Energy