While on vacation this month, I’ll be re-posting some of my earliest posts, sometimes with slight revisions. This one’s from April 2016.

 

Uncertainty, Risk, and Action

When you have strong opinions, you may be wrong. When you have weak opinions, you may be wrong. When you think it's all too complicated to have an opinion, you may be wrong.  If you keep having the same kinds of opinions (strong, weak, oppositional), you're probably over-relying on heuristics and not thinking hard enough. Every action involves risk. Every inaction involves risk. Whatever we do or don't do is a gamble – to a greater or lesser extent.