Most US states implemented or allowed Covid vaccination mandates during the past year. However, some states banned mandates, typically with a few exceptions, e.g., nursing home workers. Did vaccination mandate bans lead to higher Covid death rates in these states? Hard to say, though it’s a question worth exploring.
First, here are states that had vaccination mandate prohibitions in effect as of July 1, 2021
Alaska: The Executive Branch does not, and will not, require any person to produce their personal vaccine history, also referred to as a “Vaccine Passport”, in order to travel to, or around, Alaska. link
Arkansas: bill prohibiting the state, political subdivisions of the state or public officials from mandating vaccination as a condition of employment. link
Florida: businesses are prohibited from requiring customers to verify vaccination status or post-transmission recovery to gain access to the business. link
Georgia: no state agency can require proof of COVID-19 vaccination as a condition of employment by the state, conducting business with the state or enjoying other rights provided by the state. link
Idaho: executive order bans any State of Idaho governmental entity from requiring so-called “vaccine passports” – or proof of COVID-19 vaccination for citizens to receive public services or access facilities link.
Indiana: law prohibiting state or local governments from requiring anyone, including employees, to show proof of vaccination. link
Iowa: prohibits the use of vaccine passports, as well as the mandatory disclosure of whether a person has been vaccinated against Covid-19. link
Kansas: prohibits government agencies, buildings or political subdivisions from requiring proof of vaccination. link
Montana: bill that prohibits discrimination based on vaccination status. This includes prohibiting an employer or government entity to refuse employment to a person or to discriminate against a person in compensation or in a term, condition or privilege of employment based on the person's vaccination status. link
Nebraska: prohibits cabinet-level executive agencies from following federal guidance on vaccine mandates or from creating their own vaccine mandate. link
North Dakota: no government agency or business can require a customer to provide proof of vaccination. link
New Hampshire: employers may only mandate immunization as a condition of employment when a "direct threat" exists. State hospitals are exempt from the mandate. link
Oklahoma: an order prohibiting state agencies from requiring that people show proof of vaccination to enter public buildings. The order doesn't apply to employees working in patient-facing settings. link
South Carolina: prohibits any agency, department, official, state employees, and local government employees from requiring proof of vaccination. link
South Dakota: prohibits state and other executive branch entities from requiring individuals to present vaccination documents to enter government premises, do business with the government or otherwise transact with the government. link
Tennessee: bill prohibits a state agency, department or political subdivision from mandating COVID-19 vaccines. link
Texas: prohibits any entity from requiring any individual to provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19. link
Now some comparisons with states that didn’t ban vaccination mandates:
Per the above table, states that prohibited vaccination mandates had a much higher Covid mortality rate from July 2021 to March 2022 than states without bans. The difference in mortality rates doesn’t appear linked to state-level prevalence of obesity or diabetes. Adult vaccination rates were somewhat higher in states without mandate bans, but the vaccination differences aren’t that great. Plus, it’s hard to disentangle the effects of mandate bans and popular resistance to getting vaccinated. One thing is clear, however: Americans haven’t been great at social distancing during the pandemic - especially those living in states that banned vaccination mandates.