Here’s what the US Government took in last year:
That’s $4.89 trillion for the feds. Add in roughly $1.24T in local government revenue and $1.46T in state revenue (both figures minus federal transfers), and we’ve got $7.59 trillion in total government revenues, or roughly 29.8% of GDP in 2022 - higher than the standard take, e.g. $26.6 trillion of GDP in 2021 (per the OECD). And it’s still not enough.
That’s because between inflation and the growing federal debt, interest payments on that debt are gobbling up a larger share of federal revenue every year. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), annual net interest costs would total $663 billion in 2023, and by 2053…
What to do? Well, obviously: raise taxes, cut spending, grow the economy, and tame the political beast.
Let’s start with taxes. Even with the biggest take in years, Americans pay lower taxes than most developed countries. That includes Denmark, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Germany, Sweden, Spain, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the UK - all of which had higher tax-to-GDP ratios than the US in 2021. For example, Canada’s 2021 tax-to-GDP ratio was 33.2%, or 3.4% higher than last year's US ratio. If the US tax-to-GDP ratio had been 33.2% in 2022, tax revenues would have been $865 billion higher than the actual take (assuming the same GDP). That alone would have been enough to cover 2022’s debt interest costs, and then some.
So who should get hit with a tax increase? Here are some suggestions*:
$500 billion: raise income taxes for households with incomes of $90K and higher, i.e., households in the top 40% of the US income distribution (52,480,000 households in 2021). The tax increase would be progressive within this group, from about $2k a year at the lower end to a whole lot more for the billionaires.
$200 billion: raise payroll contributions to Social Security and Medicare. That would require a two-percent increase in the FICA tax, split by employers and employees.
$50 billion: increase the corporate tax rate to 24%
$150 billion: raise taxes and fees from other sources of federal revenue, including a value added tax (VAT).
Ok, done: $900 billion in the bank. It’s a start.
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* Federal receipts will rise as the economy grows, wages increase, and the lower income boundary of the top 40% goes up.