“Risk and needs assessments are now routinely used in correctional systems in the United States to estimate a person’s likelihood of recidivism and provide direction concerning appropriate correctional interventions. Specifically, they inform sentencing, determine the need for and nature of rehabilitation programs, inform decisions concerning conditional release, and allow community supervision officers to tailor conditions to a person’s specific strengths, skill deficits, and reintegration challenges. In short, risk and needs assessments provide a roadmap for effective correctional rehabilitation initiatives.” - Hanson et al (2017)

Offenders who go through a risk and needs assessment (RNA) are assigned a level of risk and need, which is designed to inform case planning and help identify people who can benefit most from intervention.. For example:

Recidivism risk ranges from nearly negligible to almost guaranteed, depending on the RNA level:

RNAs also tell us what types of interventions actually work, given each individual’s RNA profile and level. These would be interventions that target a person’s specific criminogenic needs, such as anti-social attitudes, negative peer associations, dysfunctional family, low self-control, substance abuse, and unemployment. Non-criminogenic needs include life problems that are worthy of intervention but are not directly related to the likelihood of criminal behavior. Examples include depression, sleep disorders, limited recreational opportunities, and poor physical health.

Interventions that target non-criminogenic needs, such as recreation or self-esteem programs have not been found to reduce the likelihood of reoffending:

And for low-risk/low-need offenders, sometimes no intervention is the best approach:

One reason for this odd finding is that low-risk offenders would probably have done fine without any intervention, but rehab programs could expose them to individuals who lead them astray.

Reference:

Hanson, R. Karl, Guy Bourgon, Robert J. McGrath, Daryl Kroner, David A. D’Amora, Shenique S. Thomas, Lahiz P. Tavarez, A Five-Level Risk and Needs System: Maximizing Assessment Results in Corrections through the Development of a Common Language (New York: The Council of State Governments Justice Center, 2017).

Latessa, Edward J. (2023) "What Works in Reducing Recidivism and How Does it Relate to Drug Courts?," Ohio Northern University Law Review: Vol. 41: Iss. 3, Article 10.