Note: I’m on quasi-vacation for the rest of the month. This series will consist mostly of excerpts from published articles. This is the last post of the series.
—
Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America by Christopher S. Chivvis and Jack Keating/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. October 8, 2024
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are increasing their support for one another. Historical precedents from the 1930s and the early Cold War suggest that even deeper cooperation among them is possible and that a more coherent bloc determined to blunt and roll back U.S. power worldwide might develop…
Even as it supports Russia, Beijing may in fact have lingering frustrations with Moscow because the war has complicated its relations with Europe…
To be sure, a shared autocratic antipathy for some aspects of the liberal international order does bring China and Russia together. Both have an interest in molding the existing international order to accommodate autocratic states.
What these states do share is an autocratic antipathy for the liberal aspects of the U.S.-led order, which they believe threatens their very existence. This is important because threat perceptions play a key role in the formation of alliances, blocs, and groups.9
There is no evidence that China, Iran, and Russia coordinate policy across these regions now, but they might do so in the future in order to increase the strain on the United States globally.
In a more extreme version of this scenario, one of the four countries could take advantage of a crisis in another region to start a war in its own region. For example, were China to attempt a military operation against Taiwan—whether an all-out assault or a blockade operation—Russia might seek to take advantage of the strain on U.S. resources with an even more aggressive military campaign in Ukraine or even with an incursion into NATO territory.
The United States and its allies therefore need ways of reducing China’s incentives to cooperate with the rogue regimes in Iran, Russia, and North Korea. There is no chance of returning to the positive relations of the first two decades after the end of the cold war but more constructive political and economic relations with the United States and its allies would dampen Beijing’s interest in deepening its relationship with the other three.
The United States probably cannot break the link between China and Russia, especially in the near future while the Ukraine war continues. But it can attenuate that link, for example, by leveraging Beijing’s interest in maintaining a positive relationship with Europe and by adopting a balanced strategy toward Beijing itself. U.S. leaders should be cognizant that there is a connection between the degree of hostility Beijing perceives from Washington and its willingness to provide meaningful support to Moscow. It would therefore be dangerous for Washington to make the cooperation between these states a framing strategic concept.
If America does not find a mode of coexistence with China that reduces the tension in their relationship and Chinese perception of threat, Beijing is likely to conclude that its best option is to double down on its relationship with these other U.S. adversaries…
In other words, we need to find a mode of coexistence with China that reduces the Chinese perception of threat from the U.S. and its allies. If we succeed in that, Beijing is likely to conclude it has little to gain from finding common cause with Russia, Iran or North Korea. And that would make RINK into rather rinky-dink adversaries.
—
Our Beijing bureau chief’s valedictory dispatch/The Economist August 28, 2024
“Today’s China welcomes other countries to follow its “pathway to modernisation”. Mr Xi, the most powerful Chinese leader in decades, calls his one-party model efficient, equitable and dignified. In case foreigners miss his coded message—that competent government, equality and order matter more than freedoms…
American leaders have solid grounds for alarm. By its actions and words, Mr Xi’s China reveals an ambition to be so powerful by mid-century that no other country on Earth will dare to thwart or defy it. To achieve that status, China is bent on reshaping the world order from within, using its heft in such forums as the United Nations to challenge, redefine or discredit any norms and rules that might curb its rise.
During the depths of the pandemic, [this writer] was summoned to a government guesthouse for a one-on-one conversation with a senior Chinese official. Western countries talking about universal values are like colonial-era missionaries telling other countries which god to pray to, was the official’s message.
Over the past six years, Chinese leaders have become increasingly unwilling to accept foreign scrutiny of their country. Not long ago, Chinese reformers quoted foreign critics to help them push for change. Now the reformers do not dare. In Mr Xi’s China, even constructive foreign criticism is called a ploy to hold China down… In today’s China it is unpatriotic even to engage with foreign arguments about what makes for good governance, wise economic management or the rule of law.
—
A Few Things We Can Do to Counter China's Global Influence without Undermining US Security and Economic Growth (revised)/Exploring the Problem Space.. September 2, 2024
What to do about this China situation? Not huge, broad-based tariffs, which would hurt the US economy, increase global poverty, and create an anti-US backlash. Not going to war to save Taiwan, which would lead to massive fatalities, with the US losing anyway. Not relentless lecturing of China on human rights, which would continue to fall on deaf ears.
Then what? I can think of three things:
Increase legal immigration to the US, which would reduce labor shortages, grow the economy, and bolster America’s status in the world. Successful immigrants would help spread the word that America has many virtues and is a great place to live. Of course, I’m talking about fully vetted immigrants and a tightly controlled immigration system that takes into account housing supply, prevailing wages, and labor conditions. I personally like Trump’s idea to give work visas to foreign students who complete college programs in the US, including two-year programs, as one promising approach out of many. We also need an expanded guest worker program to fill jobs with lower skill requirements (e.g., construction laborers, farm workers, home health aides), with the promise of a green card for guest workers who complete a college program in the US. .
Make the US a better place to live. America has gotten a lot of bad press over the years - deservedly so I might add - what with our foreign misadventures, high crime rates, and dysfunctional politics. We can do much better, not only for our own citizens but in terms of world opinion. Otherwise, we’re simply providing material for China’s anti-American campaign.
Double-down on human rights, but not in a hectoring way. Support the UN’s message that the protection of human rights is central to its mission. Nudge leaders throughout the world to value and improve human rights in their countries. Stay on message and avoid the appearance of hypocrisy. Help other countries implement reforms. In other words, walk the walk. But avoid relying on economic sanctions to punish human rights violations in other countries. They rarely work and are often counterproductive, increasing hardship and anti-American sentiment both in the target country and around the world. Of course, light sanctions or tariffs may be useful at times, less in their immediate impact than when withdrawing them to reward positive change.
Again, the path to containing Russia goes through China. If China wants to lower the temperature, Russia (and Putin) will have little choice but to chill.
—
Links: