Every few years, Pew Research publishes a political typology report, which “sorts Americans into cohesive, like-minded groups based on their values, beliefs, and views about politics and the political system.” These reports provide a wonderful snapshot of what’s on our minds and how our minds change over time. For example, American attitudes about crime and the criminal justice system, as documented by successive Pew typology reports:
1987: Seventy-two percent of the public say they “favor mandatory death penalty for anyone convicted of premeditated murder.” The People, the Press, & Politics
1994: “…crime has topped the list of the nation's most important problems for some time now. This concern is clearly illustrated in the overwhelming public support for a policy of lifetime jail sentences with no chance of parole for anyone convicted of three or more violent crimes -- the so-called "three strikes and you're out" approach. Eighty-five percent of the public say they favor such a policy, including at least 75% of each typology group.” - The People, The Press & Politics: The New Political Landscape
1999: Seventy-three percent of the public say they favor “laws that would result in more juvenile offenders aged 14 and over being tried as adults.” The Political Typology: Version 3.0
Pew did not include any questions about crime or the criminal justice system for it next four political typology reports (2005, 2011, 2014, and 2017). This was a period when America’s violent crime rate was in steady decline. Then came the pandemic.
2021: In response to the question, “How much of a problem do you think [violent crime] is in the country today?”, 77% of Faith and Flag Conservatives and 32% of the Progressive Left responded that violent crime was a “very big problem”. Six percent of the Faith and Flag Conservatives considered violent crime a small problem or not a problem at all, in contrast to 25% of the Progressive Left. Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology
These survey results reveal broad support for a get-tough approach to crime before 2000. Then, as the crime rate dropped, American attitudes softened - until crime rates rose again, a trend the following chart documents:
American perceptions of the seriousness of crime follows the same trajectory:
US crime rates are going down again and I expect American hearts and minds will adjust accordingly, though not immediately. Vigilance has a tendency to linger, which is a good thing. Humans would have never made it to this day if they let down their guard as soon as a danger passed. Just because the tiger went back in the jungle doesn’t mean it’s not nearby and ready to pounce at the first opportunity.