(This is an announcement I’ve put together for an upcoming debate, in which I’ll be speaking for the Motion)
Motion: The US National Debt is a Serious Problem
At $35 trillion and rising, the national debt seems to threaten America’s economic future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the US government will run trillion-dollar budget deficits annually over the next 10 years, requiring more borrowing to pay the bills. Plus, interest costs for servicing the debt is projected to almost double over the same time, to $1.7 trillion by 2034. Without countervailing policies to slow this juggernaut, CBO estimates that net interest costs will account for a third of all federal revenues by 2054, up from 14% in 2024. That’s bigger than the current federal discretionary spending budget, which covers things like education, R&D, infrastructure, and social service programs.
But how serious is the US national debt, really? That is, does it pose a major risk to the nation’s economic growth and undermine our ability to maintain essential government programs? And will these problems be difficult to fix given our politics and the scale of the mess?
For the Motion - Unless quickly addressed, the national debt and cost of servicing will crowd out necessary federal spending, shrink the pool of funds available for private investment, undermine consumer and business confidence, and leave policymakers with much less flexibility to deal with unexpected events. The debt’s unsustainable fiscal path threatens the safety net, harming the most vulnerable in society. It will also undermine efforts to halt mass extinctions and protect the planet from the ravages of climate change. Any solution to the national debt problem will require a mix of unpopular and painful measures, including tax increases and spending cuts, while the US population ages, becomes less productive and more in need of government resources.
Against the Motion - At $35 trillion, the national debt is no danger to the United States and has likely contributed to healthy economic growth even as other Western nations have struggled to recover after Covid. As a function of the GDP, the debt stands at 123%, which is not unprecedented historically or even in current world context. Japan's national debt is a staggering 254% of GDP, yet its economy continues to thrive. The US national debt would be relatively easy to address: raise taxes to the developed country norm and eliminate unnecessary spending. The US currently collects just 27% of GDP in tax revenue, well below the developed country average of 34%. The US military budget is bigger than the next 10 nations combined, including Russia and China. Our level of debt is a choice and not some inevitable unavoidable disaster.
So what do you think? Is the National Debt a serious problem, no big deal, or something in-between? We invite you to attend this debate, which will begin with speakers arguing for and against the Motion, followed by a floor discussion in which participants contribute their own ideas.
A Zoom link to the meeting will appear on the event web page when you RSVP. You need not turn on the camera, but people who are seen are often more persuasive. Everyone gets a chance to speak and is encouraged to do so, but no one is required to speak.
Background Links:
https://fixthedebt.org/all-about-national-debt
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
For:
https://www.pgpf.org/top-10-reasons-why-the-national-debt-matters#:~:text=A%20nation%20saddled%20with%20debt,investment%20and%20slows%20economic%20growth
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/nov/what-lessons-drawn-japans-high-debt-gdp-ratio
https://econofact.org/the-rising-burden-of-u-s-government-debt
Against:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/opinion/national-debt-us-taxes.html
https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/us-government-debt-investment-risk.html
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/fourth-quarter-2020/does-national-debt-matter
The US Debt Is Now $34 Trillion. Don't Worry. Seriously.