…Bottom line: individuals with greater proficiency in literacy and math earn more, on average, than individuals who are less proficient. With that in mind, consider the following charts…
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Politics and Economics
Just 16 states account for two-thirds of Covid-related deaths in the US. Covid mortality rates track population density fairly closely. Political party affiliation also tracks population density, a phenomenon known as the “density divide”. To simplify a bit, the less densely populated an area, the more Republican and the less affected by Covid. It’s no surprise, then, that Republicans are less concerned about Covid-19 than the Democrats..
As for the relationship between inequality and happiness, it’s complicated. Inequality alone - that is, controlling for poverty and social mobility - does not appear to a strong, consistent or direct effect on society-wide levels of happiness. And in the US and elsewhere, surveys have consistently found that inequality simply isn’t a pressing issue for most people. Still, the very thought of inequality does makes some people very angry and indignant. But those reactions are often based on ideas, e.g. social justice or a zero-sum understanding of economics.
People often change their political minds as they get older. Adolescents and young adults tend to form political opinions that reflect those of their peers or are more extreme versions of their parents’ politics (as befits the intensity of youth). Then something happens: the intrepid fledglings leave home and school, enter the greater world of work and responsibility, and begin to doubt their old certainties about how the world is and should be. Or at least some do.
To make matters worse, there are almost as many “near-poor” California residents as there are poor residents. In other words, more than a third of Californians are living in or near poverty (Public Policy Institute of California July 2020).
Gilens and Page also treat average citizens and economic elites as though they were two distinct groups. But they’re not. According to multiyear tax return data, over half of American householders reach the top 10% income bracket for one or more years by age 60 (over two-thirds reach the top 20% of the income distribution). If getting into the top 10% counts as being an economic elite, then over half of ordinary citizens become economic elites at some point in their lives (and over two-thirds get to be near-elites). Sorta muddies the water.
Of course, the reductionists could be partly right in some cases under some conditions. This is ultimately an empirical matter. The challenge is to separate sound studies from junk studies. Take Sapolsky’s assertion that a young child’s personality predicts her politics as an adult. What is his basis for such a claim? One measly study…
If one truly believes “social issues can’t be solved logically because they involve people, who are emotional and irrational” or that “what people think ultimately comes down to their personal moral compass, not a dispassionate evaluation of the facts”, why even bother to engage people who think differently than we do? Today’s partisans might respond: the better to gain ammunition against the enemy.
An Excerpt: “Defying conventional wisdom about a polarized electorate, a report based on in-depth surveys of more than 80,000 Americans shows that majorities from both parties agree on nearly 150 key policy positions across more than a dozen top policy areas. The research suggests that Americans are eager for their elected representatives to cross party lines to start tackling the nation’s toughest problems…In the surveys, respondents were given in-depth information about the policy issues and legislative proposals under consideration in Congress, and evaluated arguments for and against each policy option before coming to their conclusions. The content was reviewed by experts at both ends of the spectrum of opinion on the issues.”
Now that’s the way to conduct a survey!
I’ll start this exploration with my long-standing definition of ideology as “an army of convictions about how the world is and how it ought to be.” This definition is remarkably similar to one provided by Cory Clark and Bo Winegard in their paper, Tribalism in War and Peace: The Nature and Evolution of Ideological Epistemology and Its Significance for Modern Social Science:
By ideology, we mean, roughly, a mental model of the world and the social order that is both descriptive (how the world is) and normative (how it should be); and by sacred value, we mean, roughly, a value that is held particularly fervidly and that one is incredibly reluctant to relinquish.
So what are ideological tendencies? Ways of thinking and reasoning that distort reality and which are motivated by ideological beliefs. Some examples: …
The first step in fixing a problem is understanding it. That includes having a solid grasp of how big the problem is, relevant context, and whether the problem is getting better or worse. So I’ve been doing some research on the problem of police brutality against blacks. Here is a bit of what I’ve found:
We often talk of the middle-class or the one percent as if they were the same group of people from year to year. But most Americans move up and down the income ladder across the lifespan: mostly up during the peak earning years of 25-54 and then slowly down as they ease into retirement. Many experience a few years of poverty when young but then eventually reach the middle-class and beyond as they get older. This chart tell the story:
This chart is based on research by Thomas A Hirshcl and Mark R. Rank, who crunched decades of tax data to gauge the fortunes of thousands of US households over time.
“David Abrams of the University of Pennsylvania pulls together data from some two dozen major cities on citycrimestats.com. His figures show that so far this year crime is actually down by around 10% compared with the same period in 2015-19.” - Fears that America is experiencing a serious crime wave are overblown. The Economist August 1, 2020
One response to “A Letter on Justice and Open Debate” was “A More Specific Letter on Justice and Open Debate”, signed by 163 individuals in The Objective on July 10, 2020. This second letter (aka “the Response”) is described by the signatories as “a group effort, started by journalists of color with contributions from the larger journalism, academic, and publishing community.” The Response includes the following 12 points …
Fascism is a popular slur largely because it’s versatile: a word with no agreed-upon meaning, so accusers can use whatever definition works to hit their intended target. Often, these definitions read like symptom checklists. For example:
What caught my eye when first reading the San Francisco Chronicle piece was its reference to Pew Research polling data that “just 22% of African-Americans want police funding ‘decreased a lot’.” Say what!…Here’s a nice chart of the Pew respondent breakdown on police funding:
What if….
…the progressive left completes its take-over of the Democratic Party. In the next election Democrats win the presidency and achieve majorities in both chambers of Congress. The new Congress passes a bunch of legislation to address “structural inequality and systemic racism”, including a law requiring large corporations to root out sexism and racism in the workplace. Specifically, the “Social Justice at Work Act” mandates that all corporations with at least 100 employees establish Social Justice Committees to deal with racist and sexist employees.
The following basic facts and figures are from reports recently released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Bureau of Justice Statistics. Please check out the original reports (here and here) as well - they’re a treasure trove of interesting info, plus easy to read with lots of charts for the visually-inclined.
Just a few years ago talk of robots taking over was all the rage. Thanks to robots, humans would no longer have to work unless they wanted to. Some typical headlines:
When Robots Take All the Work, What'll Be Left for Us to Do? (Wired/2015)
Robots will take over most jobs within 30 years, experts warn (The Telegraph/2016)
Robots will eliminate 6% of all US jobs by 2021, report says (The Guardian, 2016)