How to Tell the Difference between Good Confirmation Bias and Bad Confirmation Bias

According to psychologist Gary Klein, confirmation bias leads us to:

  • Search only for evidence that confirms our beliefs

  • Prefer evidence that supports our beliefs

  • Best remember information in keeping with our beliefs

  • Interpret evidence in a way that supports our beliefs

  • Rely on favored beliefs to misunderstand what is happening in a situation

  • Ignore opportunities to test our beliefs

  • Explain away data that don’t fit with our beliefs

Behind the Headline: “Just a Quarter of Republicans Accept Election Outcome”

This headline seems to be saying that just a quarter of Republicans accept that Biden won the election. That’s pretty amazing, assuming it’s true. But it isn’t true, at least not according to the poll in question. The first hint that something was amiss in the NPR article was this sentence…

Ten Years after Graduation: Median Earnings of College Graduates by Major

This post provides the median earnings by major for California State University graduates ten years after they’ve graduated. The figures apply only to graduates working in California, and so are likely a bit higher than the earnings of comparable graduates in other states. However, I’m assuming the overall pattern remains the same, i.e., some majors have a much greater payoff than others, no matter where you live. I chose ten years post-graduation, because that allows enough time for most graduates to pursue further studies, explore various starter jobs, and land in a career-type occupation.

Why People Change Their Politics: The Influence of Place, Personality and Social Networks

Before anyone assumes that remote workers moving from Blue to Red areas will change the politics of their new home, consider the opposite possibility: their new home may change the Blue transplants even more. That’s because political views aren’t fixed for life and where one lives can have a big effect on how one thinks about politics. At least that’s according to Jeffrey Lyons, a political scientist who studies why people change their political views over time. The rest of this post summarizes Lyons’ findings on factors that make some people more likely to change their politics than others.

Why Homelessness is Not Just an Affordable Housing Issue

Unfortunately, most of the chronic and unsheltered homeless are either unable or unwilling to work. For example, according to San Francisco’s latest homeless count, just 11% of the respondents reported they worked, whether full-time, part-time, sporadically, or in seasonal/temporary jobs. And just 14% of the employed reported they made more than $1500 a month. That means less than 2% of all the homeless interviewed for the San Francisco count earned more than $1500 a month.

How Can Governments Secure the Right to Pursue Happiness?

The right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness: sounds good to me. These rights pretty much cover the purview of government, not counting the obligation to protect other species - but that’s a subject for another day. For now we’re dealing with what governments owe their humans. First, some clarification according to my sense of these three basic rights.

How Not to be Patronizing towards Trump Voters

The above quotes project an attitude of compassion (“let’s reach out to these folks”), sympathetic understanding (“they didn’t know where to turn”) and/or fellow-feeling (”They have just succumbed to fear, like all of us have done sometime in our lives”), yet each presents Trump voters as clueless, debilitated by fear, and/or in need of guidance. That’s what I call an air of superiority. And, no, I didn’t vote for Trump.

In What Way is a Country's Shameful History Relevant to How It is Currently Governed?

Jasanoff clearly feels past abuses should be revealed and some sort of historical debt paid, starting with a gesture of recompense and proceeding to a possibly never-ending reckoning. What does that mean in concrete terms? What’s the reckoning plan? What’s the reckoning goal? When is enough enough, reckoning-wise? On a related note, what is reckoning meant to accomplish?

What Issues Matter Most to Republicans and Democrats and How That Sheds Light on the Vote

Per the Gallup survey, Republicans care more about national security, the economy and crime than do the Democrats. Many Republicans also consider Democrats weak - if not downright counterproductive - on these issues. Republican votes are therefore largely driven by two considerations: vote for candidates they perceive as strong on national security, the economy, and crime and vote against candidates they think will undermine national security, damage the economy, and increase crime.

What Does It Mean to be Patriotic? It Depends on Who You Ask.

Aside from “love of country”, not even the dictionaries agree on the nature of such love. What is it? A passionate urge to support, serve and defend one’s country? Devotion to the welfare of one’s compatriots? Loving one’s country more than other countries? Being proud of one’s country? These are not the same things. Plus, they don’t provide much insight into what patriotism means to those who embrace patriotic sentiments without apology. Let’s see what patriotism means to these folks…

How to Help Farmers Do More to Help the Planet: The Case of Alley Cropping

Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice that involves alternating field crops with rows of trees or shrubs. Besides soaking up emissions and storing carbon, alley cropping reduces surface water runoff and erosion, improves soil quality, enhances habitat for wildlife and beneficial insects, and decreases offsite movement of nutrients or chemicals. Alley cropping also provides farmers the opportunity to make extra revenue given that tree products like fruit and nuts generally fetch higher prices than many field crops. So why haven’t more US farmers adopted the practice?

Behind the Science: Why do Educated Democrats Misunderstand Republicans So Much?

The Perception Gap survey found that both Democrats and Republicans have a distorted understanding of each others’ views…Surprisingly, the most educated Democrats are the least accurate in their estimate of Republican views and the Democrats’ Perception Gap increased about 4 percentage points with each level of education.

How Partisan Animosity is Hurting Children by Keeping Schools Closed

Of course, schools shouldn’t be re-opened in areas with high rates of Covid infection. But what’s happening in many communities is that local residents are demanding schools remain closed, even when infection rates are low and well within state, CDC, and WHO guidelines for reopening schools.

What Over a Decade's Worth of National Surveys Tell Us about Hate Crime Victims, Offenders, and Trends

According to the Hate Crime Statistics Act, hate crimes are incidents motivated by bias against the victim due to his or her race, ethnicity, gender or gender identity, sexual orientation, religion or disability. Around half the hate crimes in the US are not reported to law enforcement and hence are not documented in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). However, the US Bureau of Justice National Crime Victimization Surveys (NCVS) supplement the FBI stats and provide a more comprehensive picture of hate crime frequency, victims, offenders and trends.

What Species are Threatened with Extinction and What can be Done to Save Them?

Many more species will be getting on the extinction express by the end of the century. That’s because habitat loss and deterioration “suggests that around 9 per cent of the world’s estimated 5.9 million terrestrial species – more than 500,000 species – have insufficient habitat for long-term survival, and are committed to extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored “ (Diaz et al, 2019). As for water-dwellers: nearly one-in-three freshwater species around the world are now threatened with extinction…That’s the picture. What to do? Here are some ideas…