Reading the following excerpt from The Economist inspired this post:
“Predictions of the costs of climate change are often far higher when analysts rule out the possibility of adaptive behaviour. A study published last year considering the global costs of coastal flooding, for example, estimated that floods will reduce real global GDP in 2200 by 4.5%—unless the effects of adaptive investments and migration are considered, in which case the loss works out as just 0.11%. A new report by the Global Commission on Adaptation, a group convened by 20 advanced and emerging economies, identifies $1.8trn in potential adaptation investments which, if realised between 2020 and 2030, would yield estimated net benefits of $7.1trn.” The Economist Humanity will find ways to adapt to climate change. September 19, 2019
The new report of which The Economist speaks is Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience. Click on the link for the complete report. For those pressed for time, here’s a nice chart re the estimated $7.1 trillion in net benefits of various climate change adaptation investments:
And here, per the report, are five examples of adaptations with great returns on investment:
Cities/Early Warning Systems: Urban areas are home to more than half the global population and are centers of opportunity and innovation. Adaptation efforts, if designed well, can take advantage of this transformative energy and generate high economic returns. For example, early warning systems save lives and assets worth at least ten times their cost. Just 24 hours warning of a coming storm or heat wave can cut the ensuing damage by 30 percent, and spending $800 million on such systems in developing countries would avoid losses of $3–16 billion per year.
Agriculture/Flood-Resistant Crops: Global demand for food will increase by 50 percent and yields may decline by up to 30 percent by 2050 in the absence of ambitious climate action. A more resilient food future will rely on sharp increases in agricultural R&D, which has demonstrated benefit-cost ratios between 2:1 and 17:1. For example, flood-resistant varieties of rice in India not only reduced losses during times of floods, but they also boosted farm yields during normal years
Infrastructure/Climate-Proofing: Ports, roads, power, sanitation, sewer, and communications systems are all examples of infrastructure assets at risk from climate change. Climate-proofing existing infrastructure and building new infrastructure that is more climate resilient makes sound economic sense—on average, the benefits outweigh costs by 4:1. For example, the World Bank found that investing $1 trillion in the incremental cost of making infrastructure more resilient in developing countries would generate $4.2 trillion in benefits.
Coastal Protection/Mangrove Forests: Loss of lives, land, and livelihoods are a real danger due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion. Coastal areas will need to be buffered against storm surges and inundation. Simply protecting and restoring mangrove forests would provide more than $80 billion per year in avoided losses from coastal flooding—and protect 18 million people. They also contribute almost as much ($40–50 billion per year) in non market benefits associated with fisheries, forestry, and recreation. Combined, the benefits from mangrove preservation and restoration are up to 10 times the costs.
Water Supplies/Better Water Management: The world is already facing daunting challenges managing this precious resource and ensuring that people, crops, and the environment have the water they need. Crucial water supplies, like aquifers and lakes, are shrinking or increasingly polluted. Taking advantage of opportunities to save water and use it more productively promises quick and major gains and is essential to address the increasing stress that climate change will impose. For example, a World Bank study of water-stressed nations calculated their net GDP would increase by 2050 assuming a 25 percent improvement of water allocation.
All the above adaptations would be good ideas even if the climate stopped warming today. Meaning that even climate change skeptics could get behind these adaptations because they address current threats to humanity and the environment. As documented in The Environmental Concerns of Climate Change Skeptics, beliefs about climate change and caring about the environment are not strongly correlated. For instance, a recent Pew Research survey found that even though just 36% of Republican or Republican-Leaning Millennials endorsed “Earth is warming mostly due to human activity”, 83-87% of the same group supported expansion of renewables and 60% wanted the government to do more to protect animals and habitat. And check out Loving the Environment Is a Christian Responsibility.
The Christian idea of environmental stewardship may not mesh with the proposal that humans and other life forms are “bio-equals” but it’s good enough for me. Outcomes matter more than coming from the politically correct place.
References:
Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience (2019)/World Resources Institute. Accessed on 12/20/19: https://cdn.gca.org/assets/2019-09/GlobalCommission_Report_FINAL.pdf
Hall, M. P., N. A. Lewis, et al. (2018). "Believing in climate change, but not behaving sustainably: Evidence from a one-year longitudinal study." Journal of Environmental Psychology 56: 55-62. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494418301488