How have States with the Fewest Covid-Related Restrictions Fared, Compared to States with the Most Restrictions?

WalletHub is a personal finance website that produces high quality studies on the US states, such as its Covid-19 series:

• Most Aggressive States Against the Coronavirus

• States with the Most and Least Medicaid Coverage

• States Slowing Down the Most During the COVID-19 Pandemic

• States Where Social Distancing Is Most Difficult

• States Offering the Most Coronavirus Support

• States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions

• States with the Most Vulnerable Populations to Coronavirus

• States with the Best Health Infrastructure for Coronavirus

• States with the Biggest Health Improvements During COVID-19

I was especially interested in WalletHub’s state ranking of “restrictiveness”, in which they compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across 16 relevant metrics, such as face mask requirements and restrictions on gatherings. Is there a connection between how restrictive a state has been and its Covid-related death rates? Obviously multiple factors influence Covid death rates, but if we consider only the most and least restrictive states, maybe a pattern will emerge. Take a look:

Sources: States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions by Adam McCann, Financial Writer/ WalletHub June 23, 2020. Covid Tracking Project. Data on Confirmed Cases and Deaths accessed on June 30, 2020 between 2:50-3:15pm.

To summarize so far: nine of the ten least restrictive states have Covid death rates of less than 200 per million people and less than 3% of confirmed Covid-19 cases. How about the most restrictive states:

Sources: States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions by Adam McCann, Financial Writer/ WalletHub June 23, 2020. Covid Tracking Project. Data on Confirmed Cases and Deaths accessed on June 30, 2020 between 2:50-3:15pm. Note Covid Tracking Project described the quality of data for Hawaii as “poor”.

The most restrictive states present a mixed picture. Compared with the least restrictive states, however, their death rates are much higher overall. Nobody’s saying restrictions lead to greater Covid mortality, though. For one thing. Covid-19 spreads more easily in densely populated areas and the more restrictive states tend to be more densely populated than the less restrictive states.

Check it out:

Per the above table, the least restrictive states are not only less densely populated but also overwhelmingly Republican. Could there be any connection between Republican political philosophy and governing competence? So that fewer restrictions - done right - could be as effective at containing spread as more restrictive measures, like Shelter-in-Place. I don’t know, but it’s certainly worth investigating.

And I’d start that investigation with Utah’s COVID-19 Response, which even Dr. Fauci has praised. Utah’s Covid infection mortality rate approaches flu levels (around .1%) when you factor in CDC's estimate that Covid-19 infections could be 10 times higher than confirmed cases. Yes, the state is relatively young, affluent, compliant and healthy. Then again, Salt Lake City is a big city and it has weathered the Covid-19 storm rather well. And all without a lockdown.