“The likelihood of a crime occurring depends on three elements: a motivated offender, a vulnerable victim, and an absence of a capable guardian” Patrick Sharkey, Uneasy Peace, 2018.
“Crime is opportunistic. If there’s no opportunity, there’s no crime” Criminologist Richard Rosenfeld, quoted by Alec MacGillis in The Dollar-Store Deaths/The New Yorker, July 6 & 13, 2020.
“…thinking is always purposive, driven by a tension between the current state of affairs and the goal-state.” Shimon Edelman, Computing the Mind, 2008
Criminal acts are goal-based behaviors. That is, crimes are motivated by things like status, belonging, fast cash, power and sex. But you don’t act on a goal without a perceived pathway to achieve it: what needs to be done and what avoided. Like the rest of us, criminals are alert to risk and opportunity and choose time, place and victim accordingly. The longer it takes to execute a crime, the greater the risk of getting caught. Thus, the best opportunities are those that allow a quick exit from the scene.
Crime reduction is partly a matter of increasing the risk of getting caught, which is why we need “capable guardians” on the streets. As in the police and security guards. Crime reduction is also about limiting opportunities to commit crimes. Whatever makes to more difficult and time-consuming to commit crimes will reduce crime rates. From well-lit streets, to well-staffed discount stores, to laptop security locks, to changes in victim behavior (put away that phone!). Without a clear pathway to achieve the payoff, the would-be offender will need to explore alternative ways to get what he wants. And he very likely could use some help in that quest.