Study 1: Agan, Doleac, and Harvey (2021) Misdemeanor Prosecution Data Source: All criminal complaints issued by the Suffolk County District Attorney's Office between January 1, 2000 and September 1, 2020.

Assistant district attorneys (ADAs) often decline to prosecute first-time misdemeanor suspects if they’re judged unlikely to re-offend. However, some suspects are iffy and their law-abiding proclivities in doubt. Lenient ADAs may give them the benefit of the doubt and let them go without charge. Not so, the tough-minded ADA. The question posed by this study is whether the decision not to prosecute such “marginal” cases make it more or less likely they will re-offend. This is what the researchers found:

“…for the marginal defendant, nonprosecution of a nonviolent misdemeanor offense leads to large reductions in the likelihood of a new criminal complaint over the next two years. These… effects are largest for first-time defendants, suggesting that averting initial entry into the criminal justice system has the greatest benefits.”

Specifically, nonprosecution reduced the number of subsequent misdemeanor complaints by 67% and the number of subsequent felony complaints by 75%. These effects apply to first-time offenders only, though. The effect of nonprosecution on repeat offenders was less clear and requires further study.

As to why dropping charges on first-time offenders helps them stay on the straight and narrow, the researchers speculate that time spent in the criminal justice system disrupts lives, and having a criminal record hurts job prospects. It’s a lot easier to be a law-abiding citizen when you have a steady income, decent housing, and a supportive partner.

Study 2: Mueller-Smith and Schnepel (2021) Diversion in the Criminal Justice System Data Source: Criminal court records from the Harris County District Clerk, jail entry and exit data from the Harris County Sheriff’s Department, state prison data from the Texas Department of Criminal Justice and the Texas Department of  Public Safety’s Computerized Criminal History database, and 1994-2017 employment data from the Texas Workforce Commission.

Diversion is an intervention in the criminal justice system that provides offenders with a chance to avoid conviction and a criminal record by undergoing a period of community supervision. The study found that diversion for first-time felony offenders cut reoffending rates in half and increased employment rates by nearly 50% over 10 years. Positive outcomes were concentrated among young black men. The authors argue that intervening at critical moments can change a person’s life trajectory. The stigma of a felony conviction often leads to rather unforgiving treatment by the courts and employers, creating serious barriers to lawful living.

My take-away: As a matter of public safety, most first-time misdemeanor and low-level felony offenders should be given an option to avoid conviction, either through nonprosecution or diversion.

References:

Agan, Amanda Y and Doleac, Jennifer L and Harvey, Anna; Misdemeanor Prosecution National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 28600. March 2021.

Michael Mueller-Smith, Kevin T. Schnepel, Diversion in the Criminal Justice System The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 88, Issue 2, March 2021, Pages 883–936.