President Biden’s been getting a lot of positive press lately. Take this week’s “Poll: At 100 days, Biden's approval remains strong. Can the honeymoon last?” by Mark Murray at NBC News. According to the poll in question, 53% of adults surveyed said they approved of Biden’s performance to date. Majorities also approved of his handling of the pandemic and economy, although more respondents disapproved than approved of Biden’s handling of taxes and spending. Here are the numbers:
As for Biden’s infrastructure plan, 59% of those surveyed in the NBC poll thought it was a good idea, 21% disagreed, and 19% had no opinion. Which got me thinking: what is it about the infrastructure plan that these people think is a good idea (or not)? Biden’s infrastructure plan is immense and involves dozens of large-scale projects, including:
$400 billion to expand long-term care services under Medicaid.
$300 billion for manufacturing, including improved access to capital and investment in clean energy.
$213 billion to produce, preserve and retrofit more than 2 million affordable houses and buildings.
$180 billion invested in research and development projects.
$174 billion to build 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations, electrify 20% of school buses and electrify the federal fleet.
$115 billion to modernize the bridges, highways and roads.
$111 billion to replace lead water pipes and upgrade sewer systems
$100 billion to build high-speed broadband that provides 100% coverage for the country.
$100 billion to upgrade the resilience of the power grid and move to clean electricity, among other power projects.
$100 billion to upgrade and build new schools.
$100 billion for workforce development
As it turns out, the polling company described the infrastructure plan to respondents, so one can surmise the described plan was what they thought was, or was not, a good idea. The pollster’s exact words:
“Now I am going to describe the infrastructure plan that President Biden supports. This plan would repair and upgrade transportation, water, and energy systems. It would also expand broadband access, increase pay for caregivers of the elderly and disabled, as well as provide funding for job training and other programs. Overall, do you think this plan is a good or bad idea?”
Notice what is not mentioned in the above description of Biden’s infrastructure plan: the estimated cost, how it would be funded, and many of the most expensive projects. In other words, the description leaves out essential information; thus, responses to the described infrastructure plan are meaningless. The description also seems designed to elicit approval - who’s against paying caregivers more*? A more honest description would look something like this:
“Now I am going to describe President Biden’s infrastructure plan. President Biden has proposed paying for the $2 trillion plan with an increase in corporate taxes. The plan would repair and upgrade water, transportation, and energy systems, upgrade and build new schools, expand broadband access, expand long-term care for the elderly and disabled, and provide funding for domestic manufacturing and job training. The plan also aims to build half a million electric vehicle charging stations as well as produce, preserve and retrofit more than 2 million affordable houses and buildings. Overall, do you think this plan is a good or bad idea?”
I imagine fewer respondents would have approved of Biden’s infrastructure plan had they been read the above re-worded description, especially given that more respondents had disapproved than approved of Biden’s handling of “taxes and spending” (see top chart). None of this is to say whether I think the infrastructure plan is a good idea**, only to make the point that poll results should be interrogated, not accepted at face value.
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* Increasing the pay of caregivers is a small part of the plan’s proposed Medicaid expansion and budget. Why it was highlighted in the pollster’s description can only be understood as a way to pull heartstrings and increase approval.
** For the record, I like some bits and not others.
References:
“Poll: At 100 days, Biden's approval remains strong. Can the honeymoon last?”by Mark Murray/NBC News April 25, 2021.
“Biden infrastructure plan: A breakdown of projects, tax hikes to pay for them”. ABC News and the Associated Press March 31, 2021