Throughout this series of posts, I’ll be using North Carolina (NC) as a case study, partly because the state implemented major sentencing reforms in 1994 and 2011, so enough time has passed to detect possible effects. Just as important, North Carolina has great data.
Per Offenders Placed on Probation or Released from Prison, the NC sentencing reforms:
“…sought to make offenders convicted of violent crimes, as well as repeat offenders, more likely to receive active prison sentences and to serve longer prison terms. At the same time, guidelines were intended to make first-time offenders charged with nonviolent crimes less likely to be imprisoned, and to have them serve shorter terms if imprisoned. As a result, [the new sentencing guidelines] tended to shift some offenders to probation who formerly would have gone to prison, and others to prison who formerly might have received probation. This shift was expected to change recidivism rates by remixing not only the offense profile of various groups but, perhaps more importantly, the profile of their criminal histories.”
My assumption in reading this was that NC probationers would be mostly offenders with few if any prior contacts with the criminal justice system. Then I saw this:
Mmmm…82% of the probationers in 2019 had prior arrests and 59% had been placed on probation before. Around a third were previously incarcerated felons. Of probationers with prior arrests, over half had been arrested three or more times. In other words, a lot of repeat offenders are being put on probation in North Carolina - somewhat ironic given the 1994 sentencing reform was supposed to divert more repeat offenders to prison.
Don’t get me wrong, though. I’m not against probation for all repeat offenders, especially if we’re talking relatively low-level offenses with significant time gaps in between. Probation may also be appropriate for repeat offenders who have otherwise shown signs of getting their acts together, for example by being steadily employed. These individuals could lose their jobs or get evicted if they had to serve a prison sentence. Of course, if they keep breaking the law, there still should be consequences - at the very least community service or restitution.
What concerns me about the North Carolina numbers is that their probation system doesn’t seem to be doing a good job of keeping offenders out of trouble. As documented in Part I of this series, North Carolina’s recidivism rates have been going up for the last 20 years – for probationers and prisoners. However, this doesn’t mean the probation system or earlier sentencing reforms are responsible for the higher recidivism rates. It may be that other factors are more important, such as the ongoing opioid epidemic.
Next: What are the chances of getting into trouble once again? Looking at needs and risk assessments.