Recap: Throughout this series of posts, I’ve been using North Carolina (NC) as a case study, partly because the state implemented major sentencing reforms in 1994 and 2011, so enough time has passed to detect possible effects. Just as important, North Carolina has great data.  

Per Offenders Placed on Probation or Released from Prison, the NC sentencing reforms: 

“…sought to make offenders convicted of violent crimes, as well as repeat offenders, more likely to receive active prison sentences and to serve longer prison terms. At the same time, guidelines were intended to make first-time offenders charged with nonviolent crimes less likely to be imprisoned, and to have them serve shorter terms if imprisoned. As a result, [the new sentencing guidelines] tended to shift some offenders to probation who formerly would have gone to prison, and others to prison who formerly might have received probation. This shift was expected to change recidivism rates by remixing not only the offense profile of various groups but, perhaps more importantly, the profile of their criminal histories.”

Despite these reforms, recidivist arrests for both probationers and prisoners have gone up in North Carolina, at least during the period of 2002-2019. That may not be the fault of the reforms; broad societal trends were also at play during the same period. For example, the burgeoning opioid epidemic may have ensnared a good number of former offenders, motivating them to commit new crimes (to get drug money), as well as impairing their ability to resist the temptation (disinhibiting effects). And the decline in well-paying jobs for low-skilled workers may have made it increasingly hard for some former offenders to earn enough on the job to pay their bills, so they supplemented or replaced their wages with other ways of making money. I’m speculating but North Carolina’s data suggest I may be onto something. Take a look:

According to the above table, both substance use and limited education are associated with recidivism risk in North Carolina. And according to the following table, three-quarters of offenders in North Carolina placed on probation or released from prison in 2019 were identified as having substance use issues. Academic/vocational and employment were also identified as areas of need for a good number of offenders.

Many states, including North Carolina, require offenders to undergo a Risk and Need Assessment (RNA), which helps criminal justice officials target interventions to reduce recidivism. For example, prisons use RNAs to identify programs inmates should attend while incarcerated. Probation and parole agencies use them to develop an offender’s supervision plan and inform responses to violations. RNAs, supplemented by criminal records, are also used to classify an offender’s level of risk and need, from Minimal to Extreme. These classifications turn out to be rather good predictors of recidivism:

Note: CRV = Confinement in Response to Violation. Delegated Authority = Delegated Authority to probation officers, giving them authority to impose most of the current conditions of probation and to respond to violations by placing probationers in jail for 2- or 3-day periods (quick dips) without a court hearing. Reference is the offender category other categories are being compared to. For example, probationers identified as “Extreme” risk” are 24% more likely to have their probation revoked compared the reference group of probationers identified as being “Minimal” risk.

So who’s at risk of reoffending? Young adults, males, those with prior criminal history, and offenders classified as high or extreme risk or need due to a combination of factors. What reduces the risk of reoffending? Limited periods of confinement in response to violations of probation or parole. Plus getting older. Plus help with housing, education/training, employment, mental health, substance use, and finding new “prosocial” friends to hang out with.

References:

Correctional Program Evaluation: Offenders Placed on Probation or Released from Prison, Fiscal Year 2019. North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission, April 15, 2022

Exploring the Problem Space: Sentencing Reform and Recidivism Rates, Part 1: What are the Trends in North Carolina?  

Exploring the Problem Space: Sentencing Reform and Recidivism Rates, Part II: Probation, Again

What Are Criminal Risk factors? Pew Research

Yukhnenko D, Blackwood N, Fazel S. Risk factors for recidivism in individuals receiving community sentences: a systematic review and meta-analysis. CNS Spectr. 2020 Apr;25(2):252-263. doi: 10.1017/S1092852919001056