See here and here for Exploratory Sketches I and II.
Take Three:
Number of Palestinian refugees: 6,000,000. Approximately four million are adults (18 and over). An “adult refugee” shall be defined as individuals age 18 and over by a specified date in the agreement.
Adult Palestinian refugees would be invited to participate in a return-to-Israel lottery.
Lottery winners who passed a vetting process would receive an offer to move to Israel, limited to one winner per family unit. A family unit may include single adult only, adult + spouse/partner (if any) + minor children (if any).
Rejected offers would be put back in the system until there are 150,000 vetted lottery winners.
An estimated 600,000 Palestinian refugees would settle in Israel over a period of 10 years (average 4 individuals per lottery winner, including spouse/partner and minor children, if any).
There is currently a housing shortage in Israel. Israel will build at least 15,000 dwelling units a year to house returning Palestinians, funded by private developers. Palestinians would not be obligated to live in these units but must submit documentation of suitable housing elsewhere in Israel before being allowed to emigrate.
Lottery winners and their immediate family would move to Israel upon confirmation of stable housing, not to exceed 15,000 Palestinian emigrant families per year.
Returnee lottery winners (who settle in Israel) would receive $24,000, paid in monthly increments, over a period of two years. Israel would provide these funds, as well as benefits and services comparable to what recent immigrants receive in Israel.
These Palestinians would no longer be considered refugees after they have moved and received their agreed payments from Israel, or if their lottery status has been nullified for criminal activities, as specified in the agreement and confirmed upon review.
All remaining adult refugees will be invited to participate in a resettlement lottery.
Lottery winners and their immediate family (spouse and minor children) would receive an offer to settle in other nations, mostly in Europe and the Americas, subject to country quotas. Lottery winners will be limited to one adult per family unit, i.e., single adult, spouses, or nuclear family (minor children only).
Unaccepted offers would be put back in the system until there are 250,000 lottery winners (roughly one million individuals, including lottery winners and their immediate family)
An estimated one million Palestinian refugees would move to their participating country of choice.
Resettlement lottery winners would receive $24,000 in monthly increments over a period of two years. They will be paid out of a resettlement fund, with contributions coming from Israel, receiving countries, and the UN, split three ways ($8,000 each per lottery winner).
Resettlement lottery winners would also receive benefits and services from receiving countries, comparable to what recent immigrants normally receive in these countries.
After accounting for the 1.6 million lottery winners and their families, an estimated 4.4 million refugees remain. Of these, around 3 million would be adults.
These Palestinians and their minor children would become citizens of a new Palestinian state - a somewhat expanded West Bank and Gaza.
Israel would provide the adult citizens of the new Palestinian state $24,000, paid in monthly increments, over a period of two years, provided they formally forfeit any right to emigrate to Israel. Otherwise, they would not receive any payment.
Payments would stop if the recipient is charged with certain crimes, as specified in the agreement and confirmed upon review. There will be a process for appealing suspension of payments.Payments would resume if the person is exonerated.
Individuals who threaten, plan or commit terrorist acts against Israel during the initial two-year period would have their payments stopped, citizenship revoked, and be sent to a refugee camp or third country, if admitted. There will be an appeal process. If a person is exonerated, payments would resume and citizenship reinstated.
Here’s how much Israel would have to spend for the above hypothetical agreement:
