Experts may agree on long-established facts but that’s about it. But the media isn’t going to run a headline on a long-established fact (“Experts say the common cold is caused by a virus!”).
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Politics and Economics
Here's How Fast the Economy Recovered after the 1957-58 Pandemic, Despite a US Death Toll of 116,000
“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.” - 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)/CDC
Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US. This based on “Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality”, an analysis of 42 studies covering more than 20 million persons.
In contrast to ideologues, reformers still have faith in the current system’s capacity to make things better. To reformers, the system needs to be fixed, not overturned. Reformers identify specific problems and propose narrow solutions. Ideologues identify existential threats and fight for “structural change”. Reformers are cool. Ideologues are hot, hot, hot. Of course, reformers can get excited about their vision of change but they tend to lack the ideologue’s righteous passion.
Here’s a definition of hope: “the perceived ability to execute envisioned routes to desirable future goals.” Hopeful people are able to envision pathways to success and feel confident in their ability to follow those pathways to achieve their goals. Socially mobile societies tend to be full of hopeful people, because they provide a foundation for hope: opportunity, personal experience, and the example of others.
The above headlines are referencing the April 5 Coronavirus Task Force Press Briefing, during which President Trump and task force members discuss the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a possible treatment for coronavirus. Here are the relevant excerpts, with some text underlined for emphasis…
For some weeks now, President Trump has been hyping the potential of the drug hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. Governor Cuomo has has expressed similar sentiments: “The president is optimistic about these drugs and we are all optimistic that it could work”. Yet only Trump gets slammed by the media for “peddling false hopes” by “touting unproven drugs”. For example…
A few years ago, Pew Research conducted a survey on what Americans considered essential to their version of the American Dream. A majority of respondents endorsed “freedom of choice in how to live”, “Have a good family life”, and “retire comfortably”. Just 11% endorsed “to become wealthy”.
Whatever keeps people from completing high school and getting at least some practical post-secondary education or training is keeping them from moving up the socioeconomic ladder. Could be substance abuse, cognitive/learning issues, poor English skills, impulsive temperament, emotional dysfunction, family dysfunction, peer influence, and/or neighborhood effects. To name a few possibilities.
But causation is not destiny. Motivations and behaviors change in response to real-life outcomes and opportunities.
To quote The Economist, the new American socialist “is not a cuddly Scandinavian social democrat who would let companies do their thing and then tax them to build a better world. Instead, he believes American capitalism is rapacious and needs to be radically weakened.” But what’s wrong with opting for the cuddly way of market-friendly welfare states?…Of course, the socialists have an answer.
A few years ago, social scientists Tom Hirschl and Mark Rank analyzed individual income trends in the US population and found that most American workers moved up the socioeconomic ladder as they got older. Based on their findings, Hirschl and Rank estimated that by age 60, almost 70 percent of the working population would experience at least one year in the top 20 percent of US income distribution and about half would spend a total of at least four years there. Wow – that’s a lot of social mobility…Who are these people?
I live in the heart of Progressive America, where the populace has become unhinged at the prospect of another four years of the Trump administration. Just yesterday, a friend described the President as “an existential threat to the US”. And earlier this month a neighbor’s mass email ended on this cheerful note: “If we don't change our leaders and enact progressive policies, we are doomed.”
To which I say: People, get a grip!
Earnings tend to increase with age. Thus, full-time workers at the top of the earnings distribution for any given education level will be mostly middle-aged or older. Of course, education level is only part of the story of what we earn over time: occupation, skills, work behaviors, ambition, and luck matter too.
Hmmm, sounds like CEOs are being paid too much and American workers are being paid way too little. But before jumping to conclusions, let’s do a little digging. For example, what is actually meant by “median worker pay”? To its credit, the Sanders campaign site provides a link to the source of the claim re S&P 500 CEOs: the AFL-CIO.
Two observations: 1) California’s top income tax rate (combined federal, state and local) is quite Nordic; and 2) in the Nordic countries, the top rate applies to the high end of middle-class incomes. In other words…
Note that every developed country with a universal healthcare system requires out-of-pocket spending, such as co-pays. And most of these systems have gatekeepers, such as primary care physicians, who control access to medical specialists. Consider the Scandinavian countries:
Note that individual income tax revenue was below 8% of GDP during the 1950s and early 1960s, when the top marginal income tax rate was over 90%. The top income tax rate has stayed within the narrow range of 35-39.6% since 1987 and yet over the same period income tax revenues have gyrated from 6-10% of GDP. Now for the real shocker:
Here’s how the Niskanen Center describes their approach to policy-making: “We are globalists who share progressives’ desire to robustly address economic and social inequality, liberals’ commitment to toleration and civil liberties, moderates’ embrace of empiricism rather than dogma, conservatives’ belief in the wealth creating power of free markets, and libertarians’ skepticism about the ability of technocratic elites to solve complex economic and social problems.”
Republicans used to be more gung-ho about saving endangered species and other environmental causes, e.g., a Republican president established the Environmental Protection Agency and the late, great John McCain fought many battles to protect natural habitats. But then the ardor cooled. Why was that?
“President Trump made 16,241 false or misleading claims in his first three years” - Headline/ Washington Post January 20, 2020
What are we to make of the above headline? That Trump says a lot of things that just ain’t so. Then again, politicians exaggerate, lie and mislead all the time. …Is Trump that much worse than, say, Bernie Sanders in the untruth-telling department? Time to get the ol’ calculator out.