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Politics and Economics

Market-Friendly, Minimal Debt, Broad Tax Base, and a Solid Safety Net: Welcome to Denmark!

The United States is a dysfunctional basket case. The Left wants a safety net like Denmark’s but to pay for it by increasing taxes on the rich and corporations, supplemented by more borrowing and stock market speculation (for instance, pension funds relying on 7% annual returns to meet future obligations). The Right just resists, sensing the Left’s aspirations are a pipe dream and the pipe will eventually blow up in their collective face. In the meantime, the Danes agree to tax themselves - not just the Other Guy - to get the safety net they want. They are the grownups in the room. Check it out…

Political Power and Ideological Certainty: A Dangerous Combination

“The Kremlin’s handling of the crisis reminds some of the cover-up of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which prompted Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, to launch glasnost, a campaign for more openness. “The whole system is penetrated by the spirit of bootlicking, persecution of dissidents, clannishness, window-dressing. We will put an end to all this,” Mr Gorbachev told his politburo at the time.” - Russia’s covid-19 outbreak is far worse than the Kremlin admits. The Economist May 21, 2020

Behind the Headlines, 2020: Final Results on Finland's Universal Basic Income Experiment

The results are in! Let the headlines tell the story:

“Universal basic income seems to improve employment and well-being” by Donna Lu/ New Scientist, May 6, 2020

“Results of Finland's basic income experiment: small employment effects, better perceived economic security and mental wellbeing”/ Kela May 6, 2020

“One of the world's largest basic-income trials, a 2-year program in Finland, was a major flop. But experts say the test was flawed” Aria Bendix/Business Insider, December 8, 2019

“Why Basic Income Failed in Finland” by Jimmy O'Donnell/Jacobin Magazine, December 1, 2019

Wait…what exactly is the story here? Was Finland’s UBI experiment a success or not? That question can’t be answered without defining success.

"He Claimed", "She Touted": How the Media Uses Insinuation to Manipulate Hearts and Minds

Per dictionary.com, to insinuate is to “to suggest or hint slyly” or “to instill or infuse subtly or artfully, as into the mind”. To insinuate is to lead one’s target along a winding path – a sinuous path – that takes them to where the insinuator wants them to go. On the surface, all is a succession of neutral facts. But what one make of these facts is nudged in certain directions by choice of words, choice of facts, and how they are put together. Think Iago in Othello.

Universal Basic Income: How to Gauge the Quality of UBI Studies

But what, exactly, is a Universal Basic Income? There is no consensus definition, but here’s a good one provided by a couple economists: UBI is a cash transfer program that 1) provides a sufficiently generous cash benefit to live on, without other earnings; 2) does not phase out or phases out only slowly as earnings rise; and, 3) is available to a large proportion of the population, rather than being targeted to a particular subset, e.g., to single mothers (Hoynes and Rothstein, 2019).

Red States, Blue States, and Covid-19 Death Rates: Understanding the Partisan Divide

The virus leaves death and devastation in its wake, but so does the lockdown. Downplaying the effects of shutting down schools and the economy is just as callous as downplaying the suffering of the infected. It makes sense that Republican governors are moving more quickly to open their economies, given their per capita Covid-19 mortality rate is so much lower than the mortality rate of states with Democrat governors. Compassionate public policy is always a balancing act.

Blue States, Red States and When It Makes Sense to Ease the Lockdown

As the map shows, most Republican-governed states - 73% of them - have low COVID-19 death rates. Specifically, less than 50 deaths per million population. Just 36% of Democrat-governed states have such low mortality rates. Now consider the havoc and suffering wrought by shelter-in place lockdowns….

Here's How Fast the Economy Recovered after the 1957-58 Pandemic, Despite a US Death Toll of 116,000

“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.” - 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)/CDC

Comparing Mortality Risks of Unemployment versus the Coronavirus Pandemic

Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US. This based on “Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality”, an analysis of 42 studies covering more than 20 million persons.

How To Tell the Difference between an Ideologue and a Reformer

In contrast to ideologues, reformers still have faith in the current system’s capacity to make things better. To reformers, the system needs to be fixed, not overturned. Reformers identify specific problems and propose narrow solutions. Ideologues identify existential threats and fight for “structural change”. Reformers are cool. Ideologues are hot, hot, hot. Of course, reformers can get excited about their vision of change but they tend to lack the ideologue’s righteous passion.

Behind the Science: Inequality Doesn't Make People Unhappy Unless They Lack Hope

Here’s a definition of hope: “the perceived ability to execute envisioned routes to desirable future goals.” Hopeful people are able to envision pathways to success and feel confident in their ability to follow those pathways to achieve their goals. Socially mobile societies tend to be full of hopeful people, because they provide a foundation for hope: opportunity, personal experience, and the example of others.

Cheap Shots or Legitimate? The Media's Criticism of Trump's Handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic, Part I: Optimism, Drugs, and Facts

For some weeks now, President Trump has been hyping the potential of the drug hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. Governor Cuomo has has expressed similar sentiments: “The president is optimistic about these drugs and we are all optimistic that it could work”. Yet only Trump gets slammed by the media for “peddling false hopes” by “touting unproven drugs”. For example…

Why Isn't Inequality a Burning Issue for So Many People?

A few years ago, Pew Research conducted a survey on what Americans considered essential to their version of the American Dream. A majority of respondents endorsed “freedom of choice in how to live”, “Have a good family life”, and “retire comfortably”. Just 11% endorsed “to become wealthy”.

Who's Poor in America and What That Tells Us about How to Reduce Poverty

Whatever keeps people from completing high school and getting at least some practical post-secondary education or training is keeping them from moving up the socioeconomic ladder. Could be substance abuse, cognitive/learning issues, poor English skills, impulsive temperament, emotional dysfunction, family dysfunction, peer influence, and/or neighborhood effects. To name a few possibilities.

But causation is not destiny. Motivations and behaviors change in response to real-life outcomes and opportunities.