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Politics and Economics
…projects that GDP will decline by 5.6% from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020. If that happens, this year's decline would be the largest since GDP fell by 11.6% in 1946. A deep recession will further increase the size of the federal budget deficit since lower economic activity will reduce tax revenues and increase some federal expenditures, such as unemployment benefits.
Criminal justice is not about revenge, retribution, or righting historic wrongs. It’s about enforcing laws and maintaining public safety. Incarceration is not about making someone pay for their crimes or answer for the sins of their economic class, gender or race. Rather, the purpose of incarceration is to:
Deter criminal behavior
Protect society through temporary incapacitation of criminal offenders
Discourage recidivism
Let’s take these one at a time.
So what should be the point of comparison for questions of race, ethnicity and arrest-related deaths? The answer matters, because it sheds light on the nature of the problem…which in turn leads to better ideas on how to fix it.
Ok, let’s get this straight: US debt has skyrocketed and interest payments on the debt will crowd out other federal expenditures, all the while the US tax base becomes increasingly shaky and federal outlays on medical services will continue growing for the foreseeable future. It’s all too much, but I’m going to try to fix the situation, starting with the US healthcare system. The challenge: cut healthcare expenses while expanding coverage and maintaining quality. This actually is doable. Consider that at least 20% of US healthcare spending is unnecessary due to…
So what are we going to do with all that empty retail space? The obvious answer is to re-purpose the space for non-retail. Here are thirteen possibilities:
The United States is a dysfunctional basket case. The Left wants a safety net like Denmark’s but to pay for it by increasing taxes on the rich and corporations, supplemented by more borrowing and stock market speculation (for instance, pension funds relying on 7% annual returns to meet future obligations). The Right just resists, sensing the Left’s aspirations are a pipe dream and the pipe will eventually blow up in their collective face. In the meantime, the Danes agree to tax themselves - not just the Other Guy - to get the safety net they want. They are the grownups in the room. Check it out…
“The Kremlin’s handling of the crisis reminds some of the cover-up of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which prompted Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, to launch glasnost, a campaign for more openness. “The whole system is penetrated by the spirit of bootlicking, persecution of dissidents, clannishness, window-dressing. We will put an end to all this,” Mr Gorbachev told his politburo at the time.” - Russia’s covid-19 outbreak is far worse than the Kremlin admits. The Economist May 21, 2020
6. Leaves No Room for Doubt: As the Greek philosopher Hippo said, “Doubt is the origin of wisdom”. Calling out comes from a place of certainty, which undermines learning, discovery, critical thinking and scientific inquiry. …
The results are in! Let the headlines tell the story:
“Universal basic income seems to improve employment and well-being” by Donna Lu/ New Scientist, May 6, 2020
“Results of Finland's basic income experiment: small employment effects, better perceived economic security and mental wellbeing”/ Kela May 6, 2020
“One of the world's largest basic-income trials, a 2-year program in Finland, was a major flop. But experts say the test was flawed” Aria Bendix/Business Insider, December 8, 2019
“Why Basic Income Failed in Finland” by Jimmy O'Donnell/Jacobin Magazine, December 1, 2019
Wait…what exactly is the story here? Was Finland’s UBI experiment a success or not? That question can’t be answered without defining success.
Per dictionary.com, to insinuate is to “to suggest or hint slyly” or “to instill or infuse subtly or artfully, as into the mind”. To insinuate is to lead one’s target along a winding path – a sinuous path – that takes them to where the insinuator wants them to go. On the surface, all is a succession of neutral facts. But what one make of these facts is nudged in certain directions by choice of words, choice of facts, and how they are put together. Think Iago in Othello.
But what, exactly, is a Universal Basic Income? There is no consensus definition, but here’s a good one provided by a couple economists: UBI is a cash transfer program that 1) provides a sufficiently generous cash benefit to live on, without other earnings; 2) does not phase out or phases out only slowly as earnings rise; and, 3) is available to a large proportion of the population, rather than being targeted to a particular subset, e.g., to single mothers (Hoynes and Rothstein, 2019).
The virus leaves death and devastation in its wake, but so does the lockdown. Downplaying the effects of shutting down schools and the economy is just as callous as downplaying the suffering of the infected. It makes sense that Republican governors are moving more quickly to open their economies, given their per capita Covid-19 mortality rate is so much lower than the mortality rate of states with Democrat governors. Compassionate public policy is always a balancing act.
Of course, occupational “preferences” are often a matter of perceived career options, which partly reflects one’s education and skills…
Brick-and-mortar retail has been in a death spiral for years. Thanks to Covid-19, we can no longer kid ourselves that some type of retail revival is just around the corner. Nope, it’s over. And now we have to figure out what to do with all those empty storefronts.
As the map shows, most Republican-governed states - 73% of them - have low COVID-19 death rates. Specifically, less than 50 deaths per million population. Just 36% of Democrat-governed states have such low mortality rates. Now consider the havoc and suffering wrought by shelter-in place lockdowns….
Experts may agree on long-established facts but that’s about it. But the media isn’t going to run a headline on a long-established fact (“Experts say the common cold is caused by a virus!”).
“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.” - 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)/CDC
Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US. This based on “Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality”, an analysis of 42 studies covering more than 20 million persons.
In contrast to ideologues, reformers still have faith in the current system’s capacity to make things better. To reformers, the system needs to be fixed, not overturned. Reformers identify specific problems and propose narrow solutions. Ideologues identify existential threats and fight for “structural change”. Reformers are cool. Ideologues are hot, hot, hot. Of course, reformers can get excited about their vision of change but they tend to lack the ideologue’s righteous passion.
Here’s a definition of hope: “the perceived ability to execute envisioned routes to desirable future goals.” Hopeful people are able to envision pathways to success and feel confident in their ability to follow those pathways to achieve their goals. Socially mobile societies tend to be full of hopeful people, because they provide a foundation for hope: opportunity, personal experience, and the example of others.