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Politics and Economics
Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise is a project led by the Heritage Foundation that outlines policy goals for a second Trump term. Mandy Gunasekara is the author of Chapter 13: The Environmental Protection Agency. Gunasekara was Chief of Staff to EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler from March 2020 – January 2021. Here are excerpts from Chapter 13. Note that my intention in this series of posts in purely informational. For now, I’ll be keeping my opinions to myself.
Consumer sentiment measures are the best predictor of how Americans feel about the economy, especially the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI). The CSI provides a composite consumer sentiment score, based on answers to the following 5 survey questions…
The responses to another survey question shed a little light on the matter. In response to Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “The economic and political systems in the country are stacked against people like me”, 51% of respondents either strongly or somewhat agreed. But what does that even mean?
Actually, “findings” is too strong a word. The data is all self-report and thus subject to desirability bias. The homeless individuals in the study know the researchers want the intervention to be successful. They form relationships with the “phone buddies” who ask them all these questions. I imagine some participants would hesitate to tell the whole truth and nothing but.
Note how the violent crime rate tripled between 1965 and 1980, and although the violent crime rate has been falling since the mid-1990s, it is still close to double the 1965 rate.
First, the numbers for homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft…Next, a comparison of Oakland and U.S. crime rates… Verdict: …
The gap in Black-white homeownership rates recently reached 30.1% in the U,S. Per Jung Hyun Choi of The Urban Institute, three factors explain around 80% of this gap: difference in Black-white income (31%), marital status (27%), and credit scores (22%).
Andre Perry and David Harshbarger of the Brookings Institute have already crunched those numbers. To quote:
…approximately 11 million Americans (10,852,727) live in once-redlined areas, according to the latest population data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (2017). This population is majority-minority but not majority-Black, and, contrary to conventional perceptions, Black residents also do not form a plurality in these areas overall. The Black population share is approximately 28%, ranking third among the racial groups who live in formerly redlined areas, behind white and Latino or Hispanic residents…While still a tremendously large population, the approximately 3 million Black residents in redlined areas account for just 8% of all non-Latino or Hispanic Black Americans.
Proximate cause (direct cause): Occurs immediately prior to the [outcome of interest]; directly results in its occurrence and, if eliminated or modified, would have prevented the undesired outcome
Root Cause: One of multiple factors (events, conditions or organizational factors) that created the proximate cause and subsequent undesired outcome. Typically multiple root causes contribute to an undesired outcome [my italics].
Root Cause Analysis: A method primarily used to identify the underlying cause of an incident or issue, and more effectively mitigate or prevent future similar incidents.
— So the question for this post is: how would we know whether the historical practice of redlining created a causal pathway that led directly to the current Black-White homeownership gap in the US? In other words, was redlining one of multiple factors responsible for the proximate causes of the Black-White homeownership gap?
Per the Fed, in 1990, whites owned 90% of US household wealth, with Blacks owning 4%, Hispanics 2%, and Other (mostly Asian) 2%. In 2023, whites owned 82% of US household wealth, with Blacks owning 4%, Hispanics 3%, and Other 10%.
As a consequence of these trends, young adults make up more of the lower portions of the income and wealth distributions than they used to. And that’s probably ok, because all the knowledge, skills and experience they’re acquiring in their 20s will come in handy when they finally set their minds to serious wealth-building in their 30s.
Per the US Census Bureau, here are the highest levels of education achieved by Americans in 2022: 37% have a bachelor’s degree or higher, 25% some college or an associates degree, 28% high school diploma, and 9% less than a high school diploma or its equivalent. And per the Federal Reserve, Americans with college degrees or higher own 71% of the country’s wealth…
A question I have is how much wealth-stagnation in the lower income groups has to do with education and marriage trends. Specifically, age at first marriage has increased by six years since 1990 and the percentage of Americans with four-year college degrees or higher has almost doubled, from 21% in 1990 to 38% in 2022. As a consequence of these trends, young adults make up more of the lower portions of the income and wealth distributions than they used to.
The Federal Reserve provides information on the distribution of U.S. household wealth in the form of interactive charts and tables. These allow users to explore household wealth components, shares and levels across various groups and time. The information was last updated in September 2023. This post will cover wealth assets and trends by wealth percentile group. First, a very brief explanation of terms.
What do migrants want? Opinions vary:
“Settler colonialism is distinct from migration because immigrants aim to integrate into an existing society, not replace it.” Wikipedia/Settler Colonialism
“Like many immigrant groups, Africans are keen to preserve their cultural identity and ensure their children do not replace their traditional values with foreign ideas.” Africa Renewal/United Nations publication
So what is it? Assimilation to the new or preservation of the old? I suspect for most immigrants it’s a combination of the two.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) defines Palestine refugees as:
“…persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict…The descendants of Palestine refugee males, including adopted children, are also eligible for registration.”
“Xi’s statement that the Chinese “firmly oppose hegemony and power politics in all their forms” might also seem ironic to Taiwan, which suffers regular large-scale displays of military force aimed to intimidate them; Canada, which saw China detain two of its citizens in an attempt to coerce Ottawa into rejecting a U.S. extradition request for wanted Chinese executive Meng Wanzhou; or Australia, against whom China’s government imposed heavy economic sanctions after Canberra called for an investigation of the origins of COVID-19.” - The Diplomat June 01, 2023
These excerpts are from: “To Fix Democracy, First Figure Out What’s Broken”, by Adam Gopnik/The New Yorker. September 25, 2023.
Lottery winners who settle in countries other than Israel will receive $24,000 in monthly increments over a period of two years, paid by Israel. They will also receive benefits and services from receiving countries, comparable to what recent immigrants receive in these countries.
The challenge was to come up with something that Israelis might actually go for. Israeli is a democracy, after all. This budget might pass muster. It’s actually rather stingy, but would still require a substantial tax increase to fund. I doubt Israeli voters would agree to spending more.