In other words, Americans stayed home much more than normal in 2020. As a consequence, the potential victim pool shrank for burglars, robbers and thieves. But people aren’t just potential victims of crime; they are also potential witnesses and a lack of witnesses emboldens criminals. So even though most crimes went down in 2020, individuals who left the relative safety of their homes for the relatively empty streets (to and from bars, restaurants, work, parties, etc.) may have been more at risk of criminal victimhood than in prior years. At least in some areas, and especially in the evenings.
Affordances are properties of an environment that encourage particular behaviors. Affordances range from simple objects (e.g., glass of water) to complex social cues (e.g., come-hither look). They invite action (drink me! come over here!) but the invitation may be turned down or not even noticed. No surprise there: people enter situations with certain inclinations, desires, and expectations, which sensitizes them to some affordances and not others. Not everyone acts on a help-wanted sign, unguarded purse, or unfriendly comment. And those inclined to act may not behave the same way to the same affordance. A glass of water is generally for drinking but sometimes it’s for throwing in anger. An unguarded purse may be an invitation to grab some cash or turn it in to the lost-and-found office.
A skeptical attitude subjects truth claims to standards of evidence and scientific process: What is the evidence? How was it measured? Are there alternative interpretations of the evidence? Is the claim falsifiable? And so on.
Per the above table, states that prohibited vaccination mandates had a much higher Covid mortality rate from July 2021 to March 2022 than states without bans. The difference in mortality rates doesn’t appear linked to state-level prevalence of obesity or diabetes. Adult vaccination rates were somewhat higher in states without mandate bans, but the vaccination differences aren’t that great. Plus, it’s hard to disentangle the effects of mandate bans and popular resistance to getting vaccinated. One thing is clear, however…
Ok, the Covid mortality rate for states without a mask mandate was almost twice as high as for states with a mandate. Simple cause-and-effect? Unlikely, although mask mandates probably played a role. But that’s just my opinion, not a result of hard-core research and not taking into account possible confounders, like the people’s compliance with state mandates and social distancing recommendations.
Why would so many Democrats, women, young adults, and Blacks be unwilling to stay and fight the Russians in case of an invasion? Here are a few possibilities: the U.S. doesn’t deserve to be saved; one doesn’t truly belong to this country (feeling like an outsider); family safety more important; anti-war or anti-nationalist sentiments; feeling no special affinity for America or enthusiasm for the American project; lack of fellow-feeling or common purpose with other Americans; nihilism or relativism to the point that no country or system of government is worth dying for.
Experts are fallible. Experts often disagree with each other. How, then, does one go about trusting experts? And how do we figure out which experts to trust, or not? Take, for instance, medical doctors…
Emotional trust is the feeling we can count on someone, because they are fundamentally good and will not harm us. However, emotional trust doesn’t require that we agree with their opinions or follow their advice. Cognitive trust means we are confident of another’s competence in a some knowledge or skill area. We might even follow their guidance if we trust them on an emotional level as well.
Which got me to thinking…If all households were provided free home test-kits, without having to request them, and were advised to test themselves whenever they had symptoms or had been exposed to infected individuals…wouldn’t that alone slash Covid case rates? Add in better treatments, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Covid case and mortality rates quickly dropped to flu-like levels. My reasoning is as follows…