States of the Nation: Red States/Blue States and Environmental Policy, Part IV

What stands out in this map is that Red States are less densely populated than Blue States. They're more rural with plenty of room for people to spread out.  Since rural homes are bigger and traveling distances farther, it should come as no surprise that Red States consume more energy per capita than Blue States. This is a function of landscape and livelihood, not politics. If you're a farmer, you don't tootle around in a Prius - you've got a pick-up.

State Politics and Fiscal Discipline, Part I

Meanwhile, the National Conference of State Legislatures released a report on the partisan composition of state legislatures as of November 8, 2017. I figured that state legislatures are largely responsible for the fiscal health of their states and was curious how the state fiscal rankings matched up with the political composition of their legislatures. This is what I found...

Intuitions, Heuristics and Prediction Machines

If these additional heuristics were put into words, they may sound like "when in doubt, go with tough love" or "when in doubt, provide relief".  Note how uncertainty ("when in doubt") calls for heuristic assistance.  Help! I need a heuristic! Thinking hard is aversive!

Concerned Scientists, Climate Change and History as the Context of Trust

Ask a climate change skeptic why they don't trust climate change claims and you may get a history of false alarms in the environmental movement - false alarms endorsed by prominent scientists. Remember the population explosion, peak oil? So when scientists confidently predict global disaster in the very near future, a skeptic would likely file that one away as another case of alarmist rhetoric coming from the usual suspects.

Concerned Scientists, Building Trust, and Climate Change

These "Concerned Scientists" posts address a recent viewpoint article in the journal BioScience, World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice (2017), in terms of how effectively it conveys its message to climate change skeptics. No, that’s not me.  It’s those members of the public the authors are trying to reach. They’re trying to change minds, convince people that climate change is not only real but that it's potentially catastrophic and serious action is urgent.

American Households, Part V: Household Income and Types

That adds up to 75% of households within the lowest income quintile that are either families headed by women or individuals living alone. In other words, fathers living with their families are mostly missing from the poorest households in this country.

American Households, Part IV: Household Income and Work Patterns

Previous posts addressed household income in relation to age of householders, number of earners per household, and type of housing. This time we'll look at the recent work experience of householders (what used to be called the "head of household).

American Households, Part II: Household Income and Number of Earners

My purpose here ... is to understand why some people get stuck in poverty, because you can't hope to fix a problem you don't understand. And part of that is figuring out who needs help and what kind of help.  Sometimes we're talking about old or disabled people, who don't need a job - they just need to help in paying their bills. Sometimes we're talking about young people whose poverty is transient (see that 14% in the lowest income group with a Bachelor's Degree or more?), who don't really need special assistance from the government. And then there are the poorly educated and single parent families.

American Households, Part I: Income and Age

A few observations. Lower income households skew old: 57% are 55 or older, an age group likely to be dominated by retirees and disabled folk.  Affluent households skew middle aged, but once they hit the golden years, their numbers dwindle...

Science is Real - Or Is It?

But science is a way of thinking, not a body of knowledge. Science is a way to acquire knowledge. Science is about being ruthless with oneself and the evidence; proposing and testing hypotheses, over and over; being careful, tentative, incremental and alert to alternative explanations.

Political Affiliation and the American Dream

In other words, substantial majorities of all political groups feel they've achieved the American Dream or are at least getting there. Yet we hear all the time that "the American dream is dead". Take this Chicago Tribune commentary, "The American Dream is dead, and voters are angry". To quote...

Universal Basic Income: Effect on Labor Market Participation, Part II

As it is, we already have 23 million prime-age (24-54) adults who are not part of the US labor force. Many are unmarried, childless men with limited education and skills. Their numbers keep growing: the rate of inactive prime-age men has more than doubled since the 1970, when it was 4%  It is now 11%.