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Politics and Economics
“Based on our review of 981,671 migrant records documented by USBP [US Border Patrol] from March 2021 through August 2022, addresses for more than 177,000 migrant records were either missing, invalid for delivery, or not legitimate residential locations.” - DHS Does Not Have Assurance That All Migrants Can be Located Once Released into the United States Office of Inspector General/Department of Homeland Security, September 6, 2023
Example of effective political messaging: “We look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms. The first is freedom of speech and expression--everywhere in the world. The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way-- everywhere in the world. The third is freedom from want . . . everywhere in the world. The fourth is freedom from fear . . . anywhere in the world.” - President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Message to Congress, January 6, 1941
In other words, I’ll address how politicians and elected officials might be able to persuade the public and powerful interests to go along with disagreeable policies that promise plenty of short-term pain and almost no immediate payoff, all for an eventual yet somewhat uncertain greater good.
But the US doesn’t just have a skills shortage - it also has a labor shortage, meaning there aren’t enough working-age adults living here to fill available jobs. We need more workers. In other words, we need more immigrants.
Unhelpful responses to this list (shorthand version): it’s not that bad; it’s not his fault; Robots/AI will solve a lot of these problems; just raise taxes on the rich/corporations; Trump/the right-wing/conservatives/Republicans are way worse; so-and-so says it ain’t so; but what about all the things he gets right?!
This is a problem of employability. Too many Americans lack the experience, knowledge and skills that employers want. On the individual level, lack of employability is associated with unemployment, poor job performance, and low wages. When widespread, a lack of employability negatively impacts a country’s labor productivity, standard of living and its potential for economic growth. Increasing the people’s employability boosts productivity, standard of living and economic growth, which translates to higher tax revenues for paying down the federal debt. So how can the US increase the employability of its people?
“The graying of America means that the portion of people who are of prime working age is getting smaller, with fewer workers available to fill open positions, ultimately reducing productivity, straining the federal budget, and slowing economic growth.” – Antonioli, J., & Malde, J. (2023)
That’s because between inflation and the growing federal debt, interest payments on that debt are gobbling up a larger share of federal revenue every year. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), annual net interest costs would total $663 billion in 2023, and by 2053 interest costs on that debt are projected to be nearly three times the amount the federal government has historically spent on R&D, infrastructure, and education combined.
“Our message is that debt reduction, while desirable in principle, is unlikely in practice. Historically, countries have been able to [eliminate debt and sustain large surpluses] only when there exists political solidarity at the national level and when economic growth is strong… Looking forward, the challenges are daunting. Given ageing populations, governments will have to find additional finance for healthcare and pensions. They will have to finance spending on defense, climate change abatement and adaptation, and the digital transition.” - Living with High Public Debt by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen. August 2023.
And for low-risk/low-need offenders, sometimes no intervention is the best approach…
Main Findings: Permanent supportive housing interventions appear to improve short- and long-term housing stability for persons with lived experience of homelessness… Peer support alone does not impact housing stability. Inconsistent results on mental health, substance use and other social outcomes require additional research.
“In short, moderates work to puncture the kind of ideological groupthink that can occur when many people who are politically certain come together. They’re clearly not ditherers who believe in nothing. Instead, they approach politics and policy with a sense of humility about accepting the future is unknown and a belief that they should encounter the world with respect for the possibility of error.” Why America Needs Moderates (Joseph Romance/Discourse Magazine, May 4, 2023
What is a moderate? For the purpose of this post, a moderate is someone who considers themself a moderate. Moderates don’t get much press or respect, but it turns out there are lots of them…
“It stands to reason that when one sees the world as relatively simple and straightforward, people hold their beliefs about the world with high confidence...One implication of such belief confidence is belief stability: Attitudes held with high confidence are less likely to change over time than attitudes held with low confidence.” - van Prooijen, J-W. (2021). Overconfidence in radical politics.
The inspiration for this post was reading John Jost”s Précis for A Theory of System Justification. According to Jost, system justification is a general tendency to defend, bolster, and justify aspects of the societal status quo, leading some people to deny or excuse societal problems that need to be fixed.
The inspiration for this post was reading:
“Supporters of Donald Trump may well have been deeply frustrated by the economic consequences of the capitalist system in the United States, but—at this point at least—we see no evidence that they placed any blame upon the system that was the source of those frustrations.” - Azevedo, Jost, & Rothmund (2017)
Which got me thinking: the idea that Trump supporters were largely frustrated victims of capitalism had already been discredited by 2017. As a group, Trump supporters were (and remain) mostly middle-class and above (see, for instance, (Pew Research, 2018).
Between the funds accrued while incarcerated and the possibility of more money after release, former offenders would be better prepared to meet the challenges of their new lives post-incarceration: more likely to qualify for well-paying jobs and with enough money to meet living expenses while they looked for work or arranged some other stable (but legal!) source of income.
As noted, the ASBI would not be means-tested, so recipients could work part- or full-time. Although the ASBI would partly replace federal student aid programs, state and institutional aid programs would not be affected. Unlike Pell Grants, the ASBI would not drive up school fees because the amount of payment is not adjusted for the cost of attendance. Instead, the ASBI would turn students into cost-conscious consumers. It’s their money, so the less they pay for school, the more available for other expenses. The ASBI would also make students think twice before choosing an expensive private school when a cheaper but perfectly adequate public option is available.
The Biden administration has proposed some cuts in Medicare spending…But these savings amount to just $24 billion a year over the next decade: clearly inadequate, considering that Medicare spending is projected to increase an average of nearly $100 billion a year over the same period. What else can be done to rein in those costs?
Per the Kaiser Family Foundation: In 2021, Medicare spending comprised 13% of the federal budget and 21% of national health care spending. Medicare spending per person has also grown, increasing from $5,800 to $15,700 between 2000 and 2022 – or 4.6% average annual growth over the 22-year period. Looking to the future, net Medicare outlays are projected to increase from $744 billion in 2022 to nearly $1.7 trillion in 2033, due to growth in the Medicare population and increases in health care costs. Where is all that money going?