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Scientific Encounters
Ok, the Covid mortality rate for states without a mask mandate was almost twice as high as for states with a mandate. Simple cause-and-effect? Unlikely, although mask mandates probably played a role. But that’s just my opinion, not a result of hard-core research and not taking into account possible confounders, like the people’s compliance with state mandates and social distancing recommendations.
Experts are fallible. Experts often disagree with each other. How, then, does one go about trusting experts? And how do we figure out which experts to trust, or not? Take, for instance, medical doctors…
Which got me to thinking…If all households were provided free home test-kits, without having to request them, and were advised to test themselves whenever they had symptoms or had been exposed to infected individuals…wouldn’t that alone slash Covid case rates? Add in better treatments, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Covid case and mortality rates quickly dropped to flu-like levels. My reasoning is as follows…
Social scientists are people too, with their own intuitions about human nature, happiness, inequality and ideal societies. I'm talking economists, psychologists, sociologists, anthropologists (etc). I'm talking about the people who made up the theory of inequality-aversion.
The research social scientists conduct and the conclusions they reach are not independent of their intuitions about what is and ought to be. That's no reason to dismiss their work, only a plea to be alert to possible lapses of scientific rigor in what they do and say.
Any way you look at it, the US spends way more on healthcare than other developed countries, both as a share of GDP and on a per capita basis. So why are these other countries’ health outcomes so much better than ours?
Ingroup favoritism—the tendency to favor members of one’s own group over those in other groups - has been well-documented in social groups across time and place. However, real-world studies are often descriptive, making it difficult to infer underlying process or generalize from specific groups delineated by nationality, race, ethnicity, religion, political affiliation, etc. to other intergroup contexts. The “minimal group paradigm” overcomes the limitations of descriptive studies by using an experimental research design in which participants are given artificial group identities.
Unanticipated events, insufficient time, lack of requisite skills and a multitude of other factors may prevent one from acting as intended. Actual control over a behavior depends on the ability to overcome barriers of this kind, as well as the presence of facilitating factors.
These days I often come across the idea that the brain is some kind of machine, e.g., prediction machine, simulation machine, meaning-making machine, decision-making machine, computation machine. And there’s still a lot of push-back against the idea of being a machine.
Countries that have way more excess deaths than Covid-19 deaths are almost assuredly undercounting Covid deaths. For example, the excess death rates in Russia and Serbia are more than three times their official Covid death rates over roughly the same period. Some countries, such as Russia, have been seriously undercounting Covid deaths for a long time and appear uninterested in correcting their records. Others may be motivated to correct their records but the task is just too daunting to undertake, or at least complete.
One-sided books and opinion pieces do not meet this standard. Yet the Lancet’s editors are looking the other way. Why? Probably because the journal’s mission is not just to publish some of the best science in the world but also to “transform society” and be “a platform to advance the global impact” of the research it publishes. Unfortunately, pursuing the truth and advancing a cause require different mindsets. As Dhruv Khullar put it in The New Yorker…
It’s not exactly surprising that unarmed police are less likely to kill than armed police. But that’s not what the authors are saying. They’re saying that police killings inevitably happen more in countries with armed police, simply because the police are armed. They do not acknowledge that police killings are also rare in several countries that do arm their police. For instance…
The authors of the above study define police violence as “police-related altercations leading to death or bodily harm”. Of the three non-governmental databases they use to estimate the true extent of police violence in the USA, Fatal Encounters (FE) is by far the biggest. Here is more on the FE data, provided by the authors in their Supplementary Material…
Spin misleads readers to impress or persuade them, often with the aid of buzz-words like “innovative”, “promising”, “unique”, “robust”, and “novel”. But spin is not just a matter of self-promoting hype – it’s a form of dishonest scholarship that undermines the scientific enterprise. Here are some examples…
Other than climate change, at least four factors contribute to the growing cost of weather-related events in the US: increasing density of coastal populations, exceptionally high inflation in the construction industry, rising value of assets, and changes in crop insurance.
So, what does one do with this assertion of fact? Some options: 1) investigate the claim and remain noncommittal about its truth-value until questions are answered to your satisfaction (if they ever are); 2) register the claim as a possible fact but remain noncommittal about its truth-value. Reject further investigation as too time consuming: 3) accept the claim as true or true-enough, and leave it at that: and, 4) accept the claim as plausible, which is good enough to present it as established fact in the service of some higher purpose… Reject further investigation as quibbling about details and overlooking the bigger picture.
Are the costs of weather-related damage going up because the weather in the US has gotten worse? For example:
Are hurricanes more powerful or frequent?
Are heatwaves longer or more intense?
Are droughts getting longer or more frequent?
Are high precipitation events wetter or more frequent?
The Our World in Data website has tons of data pertinent to these questions, summarized in a series of charts. First, trends in hurricane activity…
Both articles seemed to suggest that, thanks to climate change, weather-related damage is on the rise in the US and the increased cost of this damage is due mostly to changes in the weather and not to factors unrelated to the weather, such as trends in population density or the value of assets in climate-vulnerable areas. Is this actually the case?
Trust is science is a good thing, right? Maybe, maybe not. Consider…
No surprise here: the smaller the metro and nonmetro population group, the more likely offenses will be cleared by arrest, especially for property crimes, although once again the countryside doesn’t quite follow the pattern.
Republicans often assert that cities run by Democrats are more crime-ridden than those run by Republicans. Democrats often counter there’s no evidence of that. Neither side presents evidence one way or another, other than the anecdotal sort. So I decided to look into the matter myself, using cities with Republican mayors as a proxy for cities that are not dominated by Democrats or progressives. My sample included all the cities with Republican mayors on Wikipedia’s list of mayors of the 50 largest cities in the US, of which there were ten with Republican mayors. I also chose ten cities with Democratic mayors from Wikipedia’s list and then looked up the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) 2019-2020 figures for homicide and aggravated assault crime rates, et voila!. Here is what I found…