Free Will and Decision-Making Machines

It’s hard to wrap one’s head around the idea of being a machine with free will. It would be easier if we expanded our understanding of machine and shrank our notion of free will.

Why Are Some People Upset About Inequality But Not Others?

My takeaway from these survey results is that how we feel about disparities in income and wealth has a lot to do with how much we think ...people have control over their circumstances...luck figures in life outcomes ...the rules of the game are fair ...people deserve what they get…

Why Are So Many Central American Migrants Seeking Asylum in The US?

Per the above chart, about a third of US asylum-seekers in 2017 were from three small countries: El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This is especially the case for “defensive” asylum-seekers - that is, those who are defending themselves in immigration court, because they were denied asylum by an immigration official, caught trying to cross the border illegally, or for some other reason.

What's Happening at the Southwest Border? Making Sense of the Numbers

The net effect of all these asylum applications is system overwhelm. Over a year ago, the USCIS had already declared a huge backlog of asylum cases. To quote a January 31, 2018 USCIS news release:

“The agency currently faces a crisis-level backlog of 311,000 pending asylum cases as of Jan. 21, 2018, making the asylum system increasingly vulnerable to fraud and abuse. This backlog has grown by more than 1750 percent over the last five years, and the rate of new asylum applications has more than tripled.”

The Paranoid Style in American Politics, Part I: Introduction

Back in 1964, Historian Richard Hofstadter wrote the now-classic “The Paranoid Style in American Politics” for Harper’s Magazine. According to Hofstadter, this style of mind was characterized by “heated exaggeration, suspiciousness, and conspiratorial fantasy”…Hofstadter goes on:

“Since what is at stake is always a conflict between absolute good and absolute evil, what is necessary is not compromise but the will to fight things out to a finish….”

Making Science Real: A Guide

The rest of us rely on mental shortcuts to arrive at our opinions on climate change - mostly to do with trust and perceived plausibility. In other words, how we feel/think about climate change depends in large part on whom we trust or don’t trust, as well as what information, explanations, and opinions fit with our understanding of how the world works. This is not an irrational way for non-scientists to approach a subject as complex as climate change. 

But we could do better. We could live the words “science is real”…

What Do We Know about US Millionaires? It Depends on Whom You Ask.

Not that these survey results are implausible. Plenty of peer-reviewed studies have revealed today’s millionaires to be frugal, hard-working, and mostly from middle-class backgrounds. They buy boring cars. They’re diligent savers. This is not new information - twenty years ago academics Thomas Stanley and William Danko found that 80% of US millionaires were first-generation rich. That is, they did not inherit their wealth.

How Would a Doctor Treat Climate Change?

Some in the medical community take a “wait and see” approach to the disease of climate change. They’re aware of computer models predicting a dangerous worsening of the patient’s condition but note that other models are not nearly so gloomy. These doctors point out that most treatments carry their own risks, so it’s best just to monitor the patient closely for the time being…However, most in the medical community acknowledge the patient will probably get worse without some sort of intervention. But many physicians aren’t convinced the prognosis is dire without aggressive treatment and so opt for a conservative approach to managing the patient’s condition. …Yet other doctors are convinced that without aggressive measures this climate change disease will inevitably progress to painful debilitation and possible death.

How Can We Save Coral Reefs? A Primer

Overfishing, destructive fishing practices, coral harvesting and mining, sewage, sedimentation, pollution, elevated sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification are all stressors. Less stress and greater resilience to stress increase the likelihood of coral reefs living beyond the Anthropocene.

How To Understand The Other Side Better

For those who want to understand the Other Side better, a few do’s: …Strive to be humble about your own grasp of the relevant facts…

And a few don’ts: Mindread – that is, ignore the other side’s expressed thoughts and motivations in favor of what you consider their “real” thoughts and motivations. …

Technocrats versus Ideologues: Differences in Degree, Not in Kind

What’s a technocrat? Admirers would say someone who approaches problems and challenges with the mindset of a scientist or engineer, seeking out information from credible sources, confronting their own ignorance, changing their minds when the evidence calls for it, taking disagreement seriously, and gladly accepting criticism to avoid error, because they devoutly wish to get it right. …What’s an ideologue? …

Ideology and Green New Deal, Part II: Signs and Portents

In the debate, supporters of the Green New Deal came back with:

  1. Other ideas are just cover for capitalist yearnings

  2. Nothing significant is being done to combat climate change

  3. There is no serious alternative to the Green New Deal

  4. The Green New Deal is our only hope to avert catastrophe

Annual Comparison of the States, Part I: The Least Unequal States in the US

It appears that states with the lowest level of inequality also have low unemployment rates (except for that huge outlier, Alaska*). They also tend to be rural, vote Republican, and do somewhat better than other states on median household income, poverty rates, and the composite measure of well-being. Of course, we don’t know cause-and-effect here.

Ideology and Green New Deal, Part I: Introduction

…where once the Big Solution was seen as a means to fixing problems, it eventually becomes an end in itself - one that requires Big Problems to justify.  That’s because Big Solutions tend to involve painful sacrifice (the darkness before the dawn). And that pain had better be worth it!

Why Americans Don't Save Like They Used To

So what happened - especially between 1970 and the early 2000s when the savings rate bottomed out? It wasn’t because Americans increasingly couldn’t afford to save; it was because they increasingly choose not to. Consider…

Top Paying Occupations in the US, 2019 Edition

Most chief executives make less than the average physician. Yes, there are super-star executives who make an obscene amount of money - but they are the exception, not the rule….the top 1% are mostly owners of partnerships and small (‘S’) corporations. These “pass-through” business owners earn more, on average, than major shareholders of the big ‘C’ corporations.