Seventy Years of Federal Tax Rates and Revenue in Three Charts: What Have We Learned?

Note that individual income tax revenue was below 8% of GDP during the 1950s and early 1960s, when the top marginal income tax rate was over 90%. The top income tax rate has stayed within the narrow range of 35-39.6% since 1987 and yet over the same period income tax revenues have gyrated from 6-10% of GDP. Now for the real shocker:

Facts...Nothing But the Facts: Time Spent in US State Prisons, Recidivism, and Crime Rates

The following stats are care of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), part of the U.S. Department of Justice. First, data on time served in state prisons, based on prison release records for 2016 from 44 states…So, how are US prisoners doing upon release? Turns out, not so good. This from a BJS nine-year follow-up study of state prisoners…

Thinking Outside the Left-Right Dichotomy

Here’s how the Niskanen Center describes their approach to policy-making: “We are globalists who share progressives’ desire to robustly address economic and social inequality, liberals’ commitment to toleration and civil liberties, moderates’ embrace of empiricism rather than dogma, conservatives’ belief in the wealth creating power of free markets, and libertarians’ skepticism about the ability of technocratic elites to solve complex economic and social problems.”

Partisan Fact Checking and What To Do about It, Part I: Counting Factual Distortions

“President Trump made 16,241 false or misleading claims in his first three years” - Headline/ Washington Post January 20, 2020

What are we to make of the above headline? That Trump says a lot of things that just ain’t so. Then again, politicians exaggerate, lie and mislead all the time. …Is Trump that much worse than, say, Bernie Sanders in the untruth-telling department? Time to get the ol’ calculator out.

From Shrug to Catastrophe: Planning for Climate Change under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

Depending on the scenario, average global temperatures may rise anywhere from less than 2°F to over 9°F by 2100 (.9°C – 5.4°C). The question is how to plan for such a range of possible climate futures? I offer some thoughts from people who make a living pondering this very question:

“Uncertain changes in climate, technological, socio-economic and political situations, and the dynamic interaction among these changes, and between these changes and interventions, pose a challenge to planners and decision-makers. Due to these uncertainties, there is a risk of making an inappropriate decision (too little, too much, too soon, or too late).” Kwakkel, J. H., M. Haasnoot, et al., 2016.

Climate Change Mitigation, Part III: Land-Use Measures

Note that I’m not endorsing some measures over others. None of the above measures are mature technologies and none should be excluded from consideration. As energy systems engineer and Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins put it:

“If we’re really in a ‘climate crisis,’ then you go to war with your full arsenal, you don’t hold anything back. And you don’t purposefully make this crisis harder by limiting our already limited options.”

Climate Change Mitigation, Part II: Decarbonisation of Electricty and Fuels

Per the IPCC glossary, decarbonisation (British spelling) aims to achieve “zero fossil carbon existence” and typically refers to a reduction of the carbon emissions associated with electricity, industry and transport. Examples include methanisation, biomass co-firing, carbon capture and storage, and many more. Here’s a list of 18 decarbonisation measures…

Climate Change Mitigation, Part I: What Can Be Done on the Demand Side

Climate change mitigation pathways are a series of measures taken to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions or to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Demand-side measures are policies and programs for influencing the demand for goods and/or services. Without further ado, here are 17 demand-side measures found in the 2018 IPCC report, “Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development”…

Why is Profit Such a Dirty Word?

“Profit is the money a business pulls in after accounting for all expenses. Whether it's a lemonade stand or a publicly-traded multinational company, the primary goal of any business is to earn money, therefore a business performance is based on profitability, in its various forms.” — What Is Profit?  by Will Kenton/Investopedia Updated Nov 13, 2019

American Politics Today: 50 Common Complaints about the Other Side of the Partisan Divide

News Flash! According to a recent Pew Research Survey, most Republicans and Democrats can’t stand each other and large numbers consider the other side to be closed-minded, immoral, and dumb. This got me to thinking: if you want to better understand what people care about, ask them what they hate. And if you want to know what people hate, read the posted comments on political opinion pieces. So that’s what I did.

What Accounts for Successful Psychotherapy Outcomes?

A bunch of studies have concluded that effective psychotherapy is almost entirely associated with factors common to all therapies but specific to none (Laska & Gurman (2014), Wampold (2015), Cuijpers, Reijnders, et al. (2019). These common factors include….

Planning for Climate Change Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty, Part I: What's Uncertain

Per the IPCC, here are a few of the “key uncertainties” (reflecting low or very low confidence) regarding the effects of climate change…Global-scale trends in drought…Changes in tropical cyclone activity…Global-scale trends in cloud cover (as well as cloud-climate feedback effects)…Global-scale ocean sub-surface temperature trends and variability…Global-scale and regional changes in precipitation levels….

Who Should Get What? When to Prioritize Equality, Merit, Need, and Rules

Cross-cultural studies have found that people generally agree the needy deserve some sort of help (van Oorschot and Roosma, (2017). Such generosity comes with qualifications, though. For example, individuals “seen as being personally responsible for their neediness are seen as less deserving (if at all)” (van Oorschot and Roosma, (2017). How much control the needy have over their circumstances, and whether these circumstances are so bad that charitable assistance is warranted are additional considerations. In lab studies, young children would not help a distressed child if her distress appears unjustified, such as crying over something trivial. They would only help when the distress seems justified by a clear cause (Tomasello 2019).