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Politics and Economics
The range: Ninety-seven percent of Faith and Flag Conservatives considered the federal budget deficit to be a very big or moderately big problem, compared with 59% of the Progressive Left. Additionally, 40% of the Progressive Left saw the deficit as a small problem or no problem at all, compared with 3% of Faith and Flag Conservatives.
As described in Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology, these groups are: Faith and Flag Conservatives (10% of public); Committed Conservatives (7% of public) Populist Right (11% of public); Ambivalent Right (12% of public); Stressed Sideliners (15% of public); Outsider Left (10% of public); Democratic Mainstays (15% of public); Establishment Liberals (13% of public); and, Progressive Left (6% of public). Here are descriptions of each group and the survey questions Pew used to arrive at its typology.
These statements about company culture or core values reminded me of a post on patriotism that I did a few years ago. Not patriotism as easily mocked, condemned or dismissed - but patriotism as understood by people who embrace patriotic sentiments without apology or irony. Here are some excerpts:
…So basically a downward trend since the early, optimistic days of the war in Afghanistan, when 80% of respondents said they trusted the federal government’s handling of international problems. What about trust in the federal government’s handling of domestic problems?
“The President will announce today that the EPA Administrator is planning to allow E15 gasoline—gasoline that uses a 15 percent ethanol blend—to be sold this summer. This is the latest step in expanding Americans’ access to affordable fuel supply and bringing relief to Americans suffering from Putin’s Price Hike at the pump.” Fact Sheet: Using Homegrown Biofuels to Address Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump and Lower Costs for American Families. White House Press Release, April 12, 2022
So we’ve got high crime, lots of police department staff, and low crime clearance rates. First thought: what’s wrong with the cops in San Francisco? Maybe nothing. Let me explain, starting with some relevant context…
Since would-be burglars typically prefer unoccupied buildings, San Francisco’s steep rise in burglaries in 2020 is not all that surprising. And the large rise in auto thefts can be at least partly explained by supply issues, which increased the market for stolen cars. Larceny and robbery are still down from the pre-pandemic baseline, which makes sense since these crimes are often committed in commercial establishments, parking lots, garages, parks, fields, and areas near public transportation - in other words, the type of places that have closed in great numbers or become sparsely peopled since the pandemic began, thanks to remote work, the decline of tourism, and widespread avoidance of public spaces.
Crime rates based on residential population are a poor indicator of victimization risk in cities that attract a large daily population from outside the city limits. In these cities, the population at risk of crime includes tourists and inbound commuters to work. Tourists and commuters are typically victims of crimes committed by strangers, such as robbery or car theft, while residents are more likely to be victims of crimes committed by family and friends, such as homicide, rape and aggravated assault.
Specifically, the average homicide rate in the Most Restrictive states over the period of 2010-2020 was 4.6 homicide per 100,000 population. For the Least Restrictive non-southern states, the average homicide rate for 2010-2020 was 3.8 per 100,000, and for the Least Restrictive southern states it was 7.3 per 100,000. What’s going on here?
The FBI’s Data Explorer System does provide yearly state homicide data for the period of 2010-2020. Over that eleven-year period, the average annual homicide rate per 100,000 population was 4.7 for California, 4.9 for Texas, and 5.2 for Florida.
California’s pretrial diversion programs allow eligible criminal defendants to avoid jail time by undergoing treatment. Upon successful completion of diversion, the case is dismissed and the arrest record gets sealed as though it never happened. San Francisco provides a variety of pretrial diversion programs to defendants with complex needs, including those with mental illness, substance abuse issues, felony charges, and long criminal histories. San Francisco’s diversion programs last up to two years and can be very intensive. People in these programs are assigned to a case manager and a treatment plan, which could include counseling, employment, training, graffiti cleanup and other requirements. Participation is supervised and most people complete their programs without picking up a new charge or being accused of violating their probation or parole.
But are these diversion programs successful in keeping participants out of trouble after they complete their programs?
Based on the above considerations, I’m going to guess that about half of self-described Black Americans would qualify for reparations - roughly 22,500, 000 individuals currently alive, plus 250,000 Black children born to eligible parents within the first 18 years of program implementation, after which the reparations program would no longer accept new applicants. A tax on households in the top 20% income bracket would pay for the reparations program…Here’s a possible budget…
I used to be an active member of a debate club that met monthly before the pandemic. We switched to online debates, but none have been scheduled for several months. Basically, the spirit has died, killed off by the venom of partisan hatred. A taste from last week’s group email thread: …
In other words, the Implicit Association Test (IAT) does a poor job of predicting behavior and is no better at predicting behavior than self-report measures. Nor does the IAT appear to provide a window to unconscious bias, given that research participants have been highly accurate in predicting their own IAT scores (Hahn eta l, 2014). Nor does the IAT capture stable, context-free racial attitudes that are resistant to change (James, 2018; Gawronski & Hahn, 2019). Rather, implicit bias is less (not more) stable over time than self-reported bias (Gawronski, 2019).
Inflation hit 8.5% in March - the fastest annual rise since 1981. Unfortunately, between the war in Ukraine, labor shortages, and an overheated economy, the steep rise in prices will likely continue for at least another year. And so we have yet another reason to work at home as much as possible: to save money. Check it out:…
“What's Putin's problem with NATO? For Russia's leader the West's 30-member defensive military alliance has one aim - to split society in Russia and ultimately destroy it…Ahead of the war, he demanded that NATO turn the clock back to 1997 and reverse its eastward expansion, removing its forces and military infrastructure from member states that joined the alliance from 1997 and not deploying ‘strike weapons near Russia's borders’. That means Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics.” Why has Russia invaded Ukraine and what does Putin want? By Paul Kirby/BBC News April 14, 2022
“At an April 1st summit between China and the European Union, China demanded that the EU and members stop supporting multinational, coordinated statements about Chinese rights abuses in such global forums as the UN Human Rights Council.” - The war makes China uncomfortable. European leaders don’t care/The Economist April 2, 2022
According to John Zaller and Stanley Feldman in A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences, people normally don’t have a “single, fixed, and firm attitude on issues but instead have many, potentially opposing considerations”. That is, most people have mixed feelings about policies and political issues - not counting ideologues and political activists, who tend to view ambivalence as a weakness easily exploited by one’s adversaries.
Why would so many Democrats, women, young adults, and Blacks be unwilling to stay and fight the Russians in case of an invasion? Here are a few possibilities: the U.S. doesn’t deserve to be saved; one doesn’t truly belong to this country (feeling like an outsider); family safety more important; anti-war or anti-nationalist sentiments; feeling no special affinity for America or enthusiasm for the American project; lack of fellow-feeling or common purpose with other Americans; nihilism or relativism to the point that no country or system of government is worth dying for.
…the ideal of ending poverty, facilitating economic mobility, and making sure everyone has access to the basics – healthcare, education, and family services – doesn’t have to pit Most of Us against a Despised Other (or at least an Undeserving Other). In Denmark, it’s more We’re All in This Together for the Long Haul.