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Politics and Economics
"Russia does not consider itself to be an enemy of the West, is not isolating itself from the West and has no hostile intentions with regard to it, …[but] in response to unfriendly actions of the West, Russia intends to defend its right to existence and freedom of development using all means available" [emphasis added] - The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation, dated March 31, 2023
"Moscow’s hostility towards the West is just the tip of the iceberg. In terms of a grand strategy, Moscow, under President Putin’s leadership, desires a return to the power balance of the past wherein the Soviet Union was a superpower and could thus define the rules of the international order on a global level." - Russia’s hybrid war against the West , by Arsalan Bilal.
By responsible, I mean the UBI:
Would not add to the national debt
Would not rely on unstable revenue sources, such as income or wealth taxes
Would not reduce labor market participation overall (work incentives and disincentives would balance out across the population and over time)
Would not be based on unrealistic scenarios of societal change (e.g, robots or AI replacing most human workers, the rich footing the bill, capitalism gone or much minimized)
Etc.
“…despite ample proof to the contrary*, many polls still show voters think Trump would still have an edge over Harris on handling the economy. We can chalk that up at least in part to short-term memory loss of the Trump administration’s chaos, along with [post-pandemic] inflation…” - Hayes Brown/MSNBC Opinion Writer/Editor September 29, 2024 [my italics]
Over 80% of the Democrats and Democrat leaners agreed on 12 of the 24 issue statements. Republicans and Republican leaners did not reach 80% agreement on any statement and strongly disagreed with just one statement (that abortion should be legal in any circumstance). What that tells me is ...
What this data tells me is that one reason healthcare spending is out of control in the US is that the cost of healthcare services isn’t being borne by the ultimate consumer - patients - but by third parties, mainly insurers, employers, and the federal government. And these third parties are less sensitive to price than individuals and households (for various reasons, including ability to pay, lack of market power, and an artificial shortage of healthcare providers).
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is regarded as one of the leading indicators of consumer confidence in the United States. The CSI survey asks consumers about their own personal finances, as well as their views on the state of the US economy. As measured by the CSI, consumer confidence typically drops right before recessionary periods, whereas rising consumer confidence predicts increased consumer spending and economic growth. This pattern is clear in the following chart...
So it doesn’t surprise me that political groups can agree on the same moral basics but still doubt each other’s moral commitments. This doubt may not reflect a misunderstanding or lack of trust but real disagreement on how foundational values and principles should be applied in real life.
“Sense of agency refers to the feeling of control over actions and their consequences.” - James W Moore, What Is the Sense of Agency and Why Does it Matter?
Kamala Harris has pledged to increase taxes on the wealthy should she be elected president. Per the Kiplinger Newsletter, she would bring back the top 39.6% income tax rate for people making $400,000 or more, as well as hike the 3.8% net investment income surtax to 5% for these taxpayers. She also plans to increase the long-term capital gains tax rate for the wealthy.
Should Kamala Harris’s election and tax plans come to fruition, US physicians would take a major tax hit. Why? Because they’re rich.
Given that individual income taxes cover almost half of federal spending, I thought it reasonable to expect income taxes to cover around half the cost of servicing the federal debt, roughly $500 billion this year. Which led me to the following back-of-the-envelope calculations...
Power makes it easier to get what you want. Power gets you even more of what you want. Power gets you things you didn’t know you wanted. Power opens up a world of expanding possibility.
What to do about this China situation? Not huge, broad-based tariffs, which would hurt the US economy, increase global poverty, and create an anti-US backlash. Not going to war to save Taiwan, which would lead to massive fatalities, with the US losing anyway. Not relentless lecturing of China on human rights, which would continue to fall on deaf ears.
Unfortunately, many proposed fixes to the US national debt problem focus on raising income and capital gains taxes on the very affluent and rich. Politically and emotionally satisfying, perhaps, but the revenue proceeds are bound to disappoint. Besides the distortive and unpredictable effects of such taxes, there simply are not enough high-income taxpayers to fill tax coffers to the required level.
At $35 trillion and rising, the national debt seems to threaten America’s economic future…But how serious is the US national debt, really? That is, does it pose a major risk to the nation’s economic growth and undermine our ability to maintain essential government programs? And will these problems be difficult to fix given US politics and the scale of the mess?
According to the Census Bureau, California and Texas have the largest urban populations in the country. Violent crime rates tend to be higher in urban than rural areas. That’s probably why Texas and California have much higher rates of violent crime compared to the other states in these charts.
Yes, my example is old. But I still encounter that binary mindset just about every day: variations on we’re smart, they’re dumb; we’re good; they’re bad; we see the truth, they’re deluded.
The FBI’s crime rates are based on arrests, whereas people in these states’ Criminal Legal System have been convicted of crimes. What I’d like to see is how much arrest rates diverge from conviction rates, and why they diverge, e.g., plea deals, diversion programs, prosecutorial discretion/approach to criminal justice, overzealous police over-arresting without sufficient evidence, etc. I imagine the prevalence of these various factors vary according to state, jurisdiction and local politics.
“Anita Kunz’s cover for the July 22, 2024, issue focuses on what appears to many to be an existential threat to democracy: the far-right shift of the Supreme Court, and the conservative movement’s plans to commandeer it” - Anita Kunz’s “The Face of Justice”: The remaking of the Supreme Court in Donald Trump’s image. By Françoise Mouly/The New Yorker July 15, 2024.
As for the other countries, I detect themes of historic struggle followed by triumph, of creating something grand out of initially slim pickins; in other words, a feeling of having overcome adversity. Maybe that feeling is essential to pride in general, whether personal or national.