Something to Think About: China's Global Civilization Initiative

“Xi’s statement that the Chinese “firmly oppose hegemony and power politics in all their forms” might also seem ironic to  Taiwan, which suffers regular large-scale displays of military force aimed to intimidate them; Canada, which saw China detain two of its citizens in an attempt to coerce Ottawa into rejecting a U.S. extradition request for wanted Chinese executive Meng Wanzhou; or Australia, against whom China’s government imposed heavy economic sanctions after Canberra called for an investigation of the origins of COVID-19.”  - The Diplomat June 01, 2023

Why the Surge in Migrant Encounters?

“Based on our review of 981,671 migrant records documented by USBP [US Border Patrol] from March 2021 through August 2022, addresses for more than 177,000 migrant records were either missing, invalid for delivery, or not legitimate residential locations.” - DHS Does Not Have Assurance That All Migrants Can be Located Once Released into the United States Office of Inspector General/Department of Homeland Security, September 6, 2023

How to Get Voters to Support a Serious Plan to Reduce the Federal Debt

Example of effective political messaging: “We look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms. The first is freedom of speech and expression--everywhere in the world. The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way-- everywhere in the world. The third is freedom from want . . . everywhere in the world. The fourth is freedom from fear . . . anywhere in the world.” - President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Message to Congress, January 6, 1941

Eleven Criticisms of Biden from a Person Who Plans to Vote for Him

Unhelpful responses to this list (shorthand version): it’s not that bad; it’s not his fault; Robots/AI will solve a lot of these problems; just raise taxes on the rich/corporations; Trump/the right-wing/conservatives/Republicans are way worse; so-and-so says it ain’t so; but what about all the things he gets right?!

How to Gradually Lower the Federal Debt, Part III-a: Grow the Economy

This is a problem of employability. Too many Americans lack the experience, knowledge and skills that employers want. On the individual level, lack of employability is associated with unemployment, poor job performance, and low wages. When widespread, a lack of employability negatively impacts a country’s labor productivity, standard of living and its potential for economic growth. Increasing the people’s employability boosts productivity, standard of living and economic growth, which translates to higher tax revenues for paying down the federal debt. So how can the US increase the employability of its people?

How to Gradually Lower the Federal Debt, Part I: Increase Tax Revenue

That’s because between inflation and the growing federal debt, interest payments on that debt are gobbling up a larger share of federal revenue every year. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), annual net interest costs would total $663 billion in 2023, and by 2053 interest costs on that debt are projected to be nearly three times the amount the federal government has historically spent on R&D, infrastructure, and education combined.

Spot the Trend: Interest Payments on the Federal Debt, as a Percent of GDP and Tax Revenues

“Our message is that debt reduction, while desirable in principle, is unlikely in practice. Historically, countries have been able to [eliminate debt and sustain large surpluses] only when there exists political solidarity at the national level and when economic growth is strong… Looking forward, the challenges are daunting. Given ageing populations, governments will have to find additional finance for healthcare and pensions. They will have to finance spending on defense, climate change abatement and adaptation, and the digital transition.” - Living with High Public Debt by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen. August 2023.

Why Moderates Rule: Excerpts from Summer Reading

“In short, moderates work to puncture the kind of ideological groupthink that can occur when many people who are politically certain come together. They’re clearly not ditherers who believe in nothing. Instead, they approach politics and policy with a sense of humility about accepting the future is unknown and a belief that they should encounter the world with respect for the possibility of error.” Why America Needs Moderates (Joseph Romance/Discourse Magazine, May 4, 2023

The Moderates amongst Us: Numbers and Demographics

What is a moderate? For the purpose of this post, a moderate is someone who considers themself a moderate. Moderates don’t get much press or respect, but it turns out there are lots of them…

How to Recognize an Ideologue: It's Not What They Believe, But How They Believe

“It stands to reason that when one sees the world as relatively simple and straightforward, people hold their beliefs about the world with high confidence...One implication of such belief confidence is belief stability: Attitudes held with high confidence are less likely to change over time than attitudes held with low confidence.” - van Prooijen, J-W. (2021). Overconfidence in radical politics.