Gilens and Page also treat average citizens and economic elites as though they were two distinct groups. But they’re not. According to multiyear tax return data, over half of American householders reach the top 10% income bracket for one or more years by age 60 (over two-thirds reach the top 20% of the income distribution). If getting into the top 10% counts as being an economic elite, then over half of ordinary citizens become economic elites at some point in their lives (and over two-thirds get to be near-elites). Sorta muddies the water.
There is other evidence that one can be risk-sensitive and relatively unstressed at the same time. Take business owners, for whom sensitivity to risk is an essential job requirement. Yet personality studies have shown business owners to be rather emotionally resilient: risk tolerant, stress tolerant, adaptable, and tolerant of financial insecurity.
Of course, the reductionists could be partly right in some cases under some conditions. This is ultimately an empirical matter. The challenge is to separate sound studies from junk studies. Take Sapolsky’s assertion that a young child’s personality predicts her politics as an adult. What is his basis for such a claim? One measly study…
…And bring them back to school they did - at least in Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel , Japan., and The Netherlands (among others). Within and across these countries, schools have varied in their approach to limiting viral spread. Some mix in-person and online classes or allow only part-time classes. Most have small classes and limit children’s interactions outside the classroom. Children are often required to wear masks and practice social distancing. However, Austrian schools are “fully open and don’t even require young children wear masks.” Japan requires parents to take and report their children’s temperature every morning.
In the real world, we talk more of causes than rules, but the process of establishing a causal relation is similar to that of validating a rule: seek cases that disconfirm the proposition that x causes y. In other words, find cases of x without y and y without x (the equivalent of turning over the D and 7 cards in the Wason task).
…I’d start that investigation with Utah’s COVID-19 Response, which even Dr. Fauci has praised. Utah’s Covid infection mortality rate approaches flu levels (around .1%) when you factor in CDC's estimate that Covid-19 infections could be 10 times higher than confirmed cases. Yes, the state is relatively young, affluent, compliant and healthy. Then again, Salt Lake City is a big city and it has weathered the Covid-19 storm rather well.
The number of new cases have been rising in California , Florida, and Texas. This increase in new cases probably reflects the expansion of Covid testing over the past six weeks, as well as the easing of lockdown. It’s unclear why New York cases have plummeted in the last few weeks. Despite the increase in Covid cases, new deaths have been fairly flat or falling…
The virus is still leaving death and devastation in its wake. Let’s hope the summer weather tempers its spread and by the fall a vaccine is ready for widespread testing.
What’s going on here? The Covid-19 mortality rate in these countries range from .06% of confirmed cases to 14.53% of cases. Some possibilities….
While the Covid-19 rates in the above 32 states are based on only a few months of data, they appear to be on-track to a lower 2020 mortality rate than the influenza-pneumonia mortality rate in 2018. The following states are another story…
Since it’s hard to pin down the actual number of flu cases that end in death, epidemiologists often use population-based death rates instead of case-based death rates. And they combine the death rates for influenza and pneumonia. Using that metric, the US death rate for Influenza/Pneumonia in 2018 (last year available) was about 15.3 per 100,000 people As of today, May 8, 2020, the US population-based death rate for Covid-19 US is around 24 per 100,000.
As these intrepid but infected souls recover and acquire antibodies, they will cease being vectors of contagion and thus play their part in the march to herd immunity. While such incomplete herd immunity will not stop a return of Covid-19 later in the year, it may slow its spread when the weather cools. And slowing the spread will continue to save lives as we wait for a vaccine to provide full herd immunity.
It’s a weather effect. Specifically, cold, dry winter air increases both the transmission and severity of viral respiratory infections by:
Affecting the properties of the virus surface proteins and membrane
Making it easier for airborne viral particles to travel
Reducing the functionality of teeny hair-like structures called cilia from expelling viral particles from the body’s airways.
Impairing cell repair in the lungs exposed to viral infections.
Reducing immune system efficiency.
As the map shows, most Republican-governed states - 73% of them - have low COVID-19 death rates. Specifically, less than 50 deaths per million population. Just 36% of Democrat-governed states have such low mortality rates. Now consider the havoc and suffering wrought by shelter-in place lockdowns….
The obvious question here is whether there is a connection between each country’s government response and its mortality rate.. The government response I’m most interested in regards the relationship between stay-at-home lockdowns and mortality rates (acknowledging that correlation is not causation). Here are the countries* that had full, countrywide, stay-at-home lockdowns: …
Systrom and Krieger applied their algorithm to spread rates in all 50 states plus Washington DC and found that infection rates are on a downward trajectory in 38 states….
Here’s hoping the COVID-19 contagion has truly peaked and the death rate will soon begin its quick slide. The signs are promisingly: hospitalization rates are down and the spread of infection is slowing in most states.
“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.” - 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)/CDC
The general consensus seems to be that California’s relatively low death rate is at least partly due to the San Francisco Bay Area’s March 12th “shelter-in-place” order, which may have prevented the explosion of contagion that has afflicted New Yorkers. Seems reasonable and yet… the governors of Texas and Florida did not order statewide lockdowns until April. And Texas has a lower COVID-19 death rate than California’s and Florida’s rate is not much higher.
Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US. This based on “Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality”, an analysis of 42 studies covering more than 20 million persons.