The virus leaves death and devastation in its wake, but so does the lockdown. Downplaying the effects of shutting down schools and the economy is just as callous as downplaying the suffering of the infected. It makes sense that Republican governors are moving more quickly to open their economies, given their per capita Covid-19 mortality rate is so much lower than the mortality rate of states with Democrat governors. Compassionate public policy is always a balancing act.
Of course, occupational “preferences” are often a matter of perceived career options, which partly reflects one’s education and skills…
Brick-and-mortar retail has been in a death spiral for years. Thanks to Covid-19, we can no longer kid ourselves that some type of retail revival is just around the corner. Nope, it’s over. And now we have to figure out what to do with all those empty storefronts.
The insecticides I have in mind are neonicotinoids, which have devastated bee populations throughout the world. Seeds treated with neonicotinoids are also toxic to birds (some birds more than others). A few years ago, the European Union banned various neonicotinoids from all agricultural fields because of the harm they caused bees and birds. Follow-up studies are now trickling in from Europe and the results have been quite illuminating. Here are some findings…
As these intrepid but infected souls recover and acquire antibodies, they will cease being vectors of contagion and thus play their part in the march to herd immunity. While such incomplete herd immunity will not stop a return of Covid-19 later in the year, it may slow its spread when the weather cools. And slowing the spread will continue to save lives as we wait for a vaccine to provide full herd immunity.
It’s a weather effect. Specifically, cold, dry winter air increases both the transmission and severity of viral respiratory infections by:
Affecting the properties of the virus surface proteins and membrane
Making it easier for airborne viral particles to travel
Reducing the functionality of teeny hair-like structures called cilia from expelling viral particles from the body’s airways.
Impairing cell repair in the lungs exposed to viral infections.
Reducing immune system efficiency.
As the map shows, most Republican-governed states - 73% of them - have low COVID-19 death rates. Specifically, less than 50 deaths per million population. Just 36% of Democrat-governed states have such low mortality rates. Now consider the havoc and suffering wrought by shelter-in place lockdowns….
The obvious question here is whether there is a connection between each country’s government response and its mortality rate.. The government response I’m most interested in regards the relationship between stay-at-home lockdowns and mortality rates (acknowledging that correlation is not causation). Here are the countries* that had full, countrywide, stay-at-home lockdowns: …
… whenever we feel we’re contributing to another’s well-being or happiness, we feel less lonely. Like if we’re with a friend and that friend is obviously enjoying our company. Or when we help a co-worker solve a vexing problem. In these situations, the pleasures of getting and giving are intermingled, e.g., being liked, appreciated, admired, or respected plus the satisfaction of benefiting someone else.
Systrom and Krieger applied their algorithm to spread rates in all 50 states plus Washington DC and found that infection rates are on a downward trajectory in 38 states….
Here’s hoping the COVID-19 contagion has truly peaked and the death rate will soon begin its quick slide. The signs are promisingly: hospitalization rates are down and the spread of infection is slowing in most states.
Experts may agree on long-established facts but that’s about it. But the media isn’t going to run a headline on a long-established fact (“Experts say the common cold is caused by a virus!”).
“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.” - 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)/CDC
The general consensus seems to be that California’s relatively low death rate is at least partly due to the San Francisco Bay Area’s March 12th “shelter-in-place” order, which may have prevented the explosion of contagion that has afflicted New Yorkers. Seems reasonable and yet… the governors of Texas and Florida did not order statewide lockdowns until April. And Texas has a lower COVID-19 death rate than California’s and Florida’s rate is not much higher.
Unemployment kills. A 10% increase in unemployment for workers age 25-64 translates to 32,500 “extra” deaths a year in the US. This based on “Losing life and livelihood: a systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality”, an analysis of 42 studies covering more than 20 million persons.
Neither Taiwan nor Japan conducted widespread coronavirus testing. Neither implemented countrywide “stay-at-home” lockdowns. And yet, as of April 13, the coronavirus-related death rate in both Taiwan and Japan is less than one death per million residents, compared to Spain’s mortality rate of over 350 deaths per million residents - and Spain went into total lockdown a month ago. What did Taiwan and Japan do right? The full answer to that question is still being worked out, but the widespread use of facemasks in both countries clearly played a major role in limiting viral spread. Facemasks broke the chain of transmission when infection rates were low, nipping contagion in the bud.
Are some government responses to the coronavirus more successful than others? By “successful”, I mean preventing virus-related deaths. Deaths as a percentage of a country’s population is a decent proxy for how many residents are infected, as well as the rate of serious infection - at least for developed countries with similar age demographics and where medical care is roughly similar. (Confirmed coronavirus cases is a poor indicator of virus prevalence, because so few people have been tested.)
So let’s look at the death rates as of April 10…
In contrast to ideologues, reformers still have faith in the current system’s capacity to make things better. To reformers, the system needs to be fixed, not overturned. Reformers identify specific problems and propose narrow solutions. Ideologues identify existential threats and fight for “structural change”. Reformers are cool. Ideologues are hot, hot, hot. Of course, reformers can get excited about their vision of change but they tend to lack the ideologue’s righteous passion.
Here’s a definition of hope: “the perceived ability to execute envisioned routes to desirable future goals.” Hopeful people are able to envision pathways to success and feel confident in their ability to follow those pathways to achieve their goals. Socially mobile societies tend to be full of hopeful people, because they provide a foundation for hope: opportunity, personal experience, and the example of others.
The above headlines are referencing the April 5 Coronavirus Task Force Press Briefing, during which President Trump and task force members discuss the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a possible treatment for coronavirus. Here are the relevant excerpts, with some text underlined for emphasis…